La Liga Week 33 Preview

This is the beginning of a massive two weeks for Spain’s giants. With Real Madrid and Barcelona separated by just four points and next week’s El Clasico sandwiched between two legs of Champions League semi-finals this will be a real test of nerve for both sides. At the other end of the table, with six games to go, it looks increasingly like the final three have been decided with a seven point gap now opened up between the bottom three and 17th placed Villarreal.

Real Madrid host doomed Sporting Gijon on Saturday. Sporting are marooned in 19th but gave themselves hope with an impressive 3-2 win over Levante on Wednesday night. They will still need a miracle to escape the drop now though and Javier Clemente’s side won’t have much of a prayer at the Bernabeu with the form Real have been in. Jose Mourinho’s side registered another emphatic victory in midweek as they crushed their local rivals Atletico 4-1 thanks to a hat-trick from Cristiano Ronaldo. Los Merengues are just three goals away from scoring 107 for the season and breaking the record number of goals for a Liga season set by John Toshack’s Real in 1989-90. Ronaldo also set his own record by becoming the only player in Europe’s top four divisions to score 40 goals in successive seasons. With the midweek Champions’ League semi-final first leg against Bayern Munich coming up Mourinho will be tempted to rotate his side. Ozil, Marcelo and Higuain were all rested against Atletico and could be brought back in against Gijon.

Barcelona just need to keep on winning. They visit a Levante side sat in fifth and still very much in the hunt for a place in next seasons’ Champions League. On Wednesday, Pep Guardiola’s side cruised to a 4-0 victory over Getafe to make it ten wins in a row and are in fine fettle ahead of El Clasico. Levante caused a shock early in the season as they beat Real with a solitary Aruna Kone goal but they are 14/1 to repeat the feat against Barca. The Champions have no new injury worries and they received a boost this week as David Villa announced that he would be back in contention before the end of the season.

Unai Emery gave himself a reprieve as Valencia crushed Rayo Vallecano 4-1 in midweek to give themselves a two point cushion in third place above Malaga. The Turkish manager has come under criticism from Los Ches fans as his side’s form has dipped with Malaga and Levante threatening to steal automatic qualification to the Champions’ League. Valencia visit Espanyol on Sunday and need to keep up their momentum to keep the chasing pack at bay. The Catalunians’ hopes of qualifying for European football next season have taken a hit in recent weeks as they are winless in five. Valencia have also won four of the last five meetings between the two sides.

Malaga will be looking to get back to winning ways against Real Sociedad. Malaaga’s charge into the top four has been laboured and they would be third had it not been for recent upsets against relegation threatened Betis and Villarreal. The odds favour the home side and the likes of Cazorla, Rondon and Isco should feast on a leaky Sociedad defence. Malaga will be without keeper Idris Kameni who was sent off at Villarreal in midweek.

Team of the week 14 - Levante and Getafe boys rule the roost

Team of the week (not including Malaga v Villarreal)

3-4-3: Moya (GET); Valera (GET), Lopez (GRN), Delo Horno (LEV), Lamah (OSA), Di Maria (RMA), Barkero (LEV), Juanlu (LEV), Kone (LEV), Aggiretxe (RSO), Pereira (BET).

GK


Moya

Moya, 24 pts, Getafe

7 saves and 1 clean sheet helping Getafe secure shock result of weekend.

Defence

Juan Valera

Juan Valera, 21 pts, GET, (value 7.85)

Match winning goal, clean sheet and five passes intercepted.

Iñigo López, 19 pts, Granada (7.12)

A match winner and a clean sheet in one of the shock results of the weekend.

Del Horno, 12 pts, LEV (value 6.12)

A clean sheet, 3 tackles won and four passes intercepted in crucial home win for Levante.



Midfield


Roland Lamah

 Roland Lamah, 18 pts, OSA (value, 8.49)

1 goal and 1 assist for this weekend's top scoring mid, guiding Osasuna to an unexpected 2-1 win at Espanyol.

Di Maria

Angel Di Maria, 16.5 pts, MAD (value 20.32)

A match winning goal and 6 fouls earnt for the Argentinian on his return from injury.



Barkero

 
Barkero, 14 pts, LEV (value 8.75)

A match winning goal and 4 corners won. Instrumental in the 4-0 drubbing of Gijon.

Juanlu

Juanlu, 12 pts, LEV (value 12.86)

Ever dependable midfield maestro gets his 6th of the season.








Forwards

Kone

Aruna Kone, 27.5 pts, Lev - 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 SOTs


Aggirexte

 Imanol Agirretxe, 22.5, RSO, (value 7.8)

A goal, an assist and 3 SOTs as Sociedad upset Betis in Sevilla.



Jonathon Perreira, 22 pts, BET (value 6.95) - 2 goals in the same game

Team of the week: 6

Top players in each position this week were:

Top forwards

Messi, (BAR 5-0 AM) 40
Ronaldo, (RMA 6 -2 RVA) 23.5
Villa, (BAR 5-0 AM) 22.5

The only surprise about this trio appearing as the outstanding strikers of the week is how infrequently the undoubted superstars achieve this in unison. Villa is especially guilty of not achieving his place at the top as often as he should. The Barca strikers feasted on a characteristically poor Atletico Madrid defence plundering 5 for no return, Villa with one and Messi with the hattrick. Ronaldo steered Real to victory over Rayo Vallecano with their second 6-2 home win in 4 games.

Top midfielders:

Michu (rma 6-2 RAYO VALLECANO) 19.5

Midfielder Michu takes the Man of the week award with his 2 goals and 19.5 points at the Bernabau - all from a value of 6.57. Real Madrid has been a happy hunting ground for losing attackers, with Getafe's Miku grabbing a brace even as his side went down 4-2 in the opening week.

Castro (MALLORCA 2-1 real sociedad) 18
Castro gave Michael Laudrup's Mallorca a much needed win, only for the Dane to resign at the start of the week.

Raul Garcia (Granada 1-1 OSASUNA) 17
His first goal since returning to his home town on loan from Atletico Madrid.

Ozil (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 15.5
2 assists for the German, who predictably filled his boots against promoted Vallecano.

Top defenders

Moreno (levante 3-1 ESPANYOL) 13.5
An all but irrelevant compensation goal as Espanyol went down to highflying Levante.

Francis (sporting gijon 0-0 RACING SANTANDER) 11.5
An intriguing 11.5 points which included 10 intercepted passes. Contributed to a rare steely display from the Racing defence at struggling Gijon.

Varane (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 11
A super goal from the French youth already fulfilling the promise that earnt him his big money move from Lens.

Top GK

Varas (SEV 1-0 val) 22
Javi Varas' 22 points show how close Sevilla's 1-0 victory over Valencia was. Sevilla edging their way into the top 4.

La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5

Team of the week 34: Super Tono, Super Lafita!

A belated look at the top performers from last week's La Liga in fantasy terms. Zaragoza's shock defeat of Real Madrid at the Bernabeau yielded the outstanding outfield performance of the round with midfielder Angel Lafita scoring a brace and the match winner to collect 24.5 pts. Seems like the lad has the habit against Los Blancos - the only vid I could find of Lafita is of the young spaniard having another excellent game against Real for Deportivo in 2009. At a value of just 8.8, Lafita is certainly an unlikely hero of the round.

The chance of Zaragoza scoring 3 goals was given at just 1% by Speigelhalter's model and an away win was given 3% compared to Real's 87%.



szólj hozzá: Real Madrid vs Zaragoza 2-3

Racing Santander's Tono was the golden man of the round though. The goalkeeper had an astonishingly good game, racking up 8 saves, a penalty save and a clean sheet to earn a whopping 34 points as Kennedy Bakiricoglu's Racing secured a vital 2-0 win over Mallorca. All from a value of 6.5 too having scored minus points the previous two weeks.

The win moves Racing 3 pts clear of the relegation zone. A 1-0 win was predicted the most likely result by Speigelhalter's model so Tono was quite an easy pick and I rue missing out on his haul. I shyed away based on Mallorca's excellent recent form but Racing were given a 48% chance of victory compared to Mallorca's 28%. 1-0 and 1-1 were the most likely results in the Poisson distribution with 2-0 and  2-1 joint second.

The next highest scorers come from the front line. Peppe Rossi was on hand to get the match winning goal for Villarreal against Getafe and Osvaldo continued his excellent form doing likewise for Espanyol against Bilbao. Julio Baptista got a brace as Malaga scored an emphatic 3-1 win at home to Hercules - more on him in a moment.

Susaeta scored a rare goal for Bilbao in their loss to Espanyol. Cejudo and Camunas both put in excellent displays as Osasuna made sure Spiegelhalters predictions came true and beat Valencia 1-0. These guys are great for points but I never know when to pick them.


Osasuna 1 Valencia 0 by jordixana

In defence, Sevilla's defenders Fazio and Julien Escude benefitted from a straight forward 1-0 away win at Almeria while Sergio Ramos scored a rare goal to be king of the defenders for this week. And there we have it; team of the week - and not a Messi or Ronaldo or any Barcelona player in sight (although, it is absolutely necessary to mention these key words for cynical SEO purposes).

Julio Baptista has obviously been reading this blog and put in a timely display as a former EPL player making good in La Liga. "La Bestia" who had an exceedingly poor season at Arsenal during his season loan from Real Madrid in 2006/07, has been in excellent form for the struggling Malaga since arriving from Roma in the last winter transfer window. The Andalucians were recently bottom of La Liga but former Real Madrid manager Manuel Pellegrini and his motley crew have done a fantastic job of stearing clear of the relegation zone in some style.

Baptista was brought to the south coast along with the new money and a wave of forgotten misfits of European football - (see Martin Demichelis and Enzo Maresca) and the former Sevilla forward had a good start at his new club. Injured after 5 games and not featuring since week 23, he has now scored four goals in three games since returning from injury against Mallorca in week 32. Overall he has a very tidy 7 in 8 games. So, hats off to "La Bestia" - it is great to see him recapture the sort of form which saw Real Madrid fork out 20million euros for the Brazilian's services 6 years ago.


Liga BBVA. Jornada 34. Todos los goles by acosart

The best starting XI would have been:

Rossi, Villarreal, 22
Baptista, Malaga, 21.5
Osvaldo, Espanyol, 21.5

Lafita, Zaragoza, 24.5
Susaeta, Bilbao, 18
Cejudo, Osasuna, 18
Camunas, Osasuna, 15

Ramos, R.Mad, 12.5
Escude, Sevilla, 10.5
Fazio, Sevilla, 10

Tono, Santander, 34 pts*

Spiegelhalter versus the world

Spiegelhater got 6 correct results and 3 exact scores. Actual results in brackets where different.

Real Madrid 2-0 Real Zaragoza (2-3)
Real Sociedad 0-2 FC Barcelona (2-1)
Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 Atlético Madrid (0-1)
Levante UD 1-0 Sporting Gijón (0-0)
Málaga CF 1-0 Hércules CF (3-1)
Racing Santander 1- 0 RCD Mallorca (2-0)
UD Almería 0-1 Sevilla FC
Villarreal CF 2-0 Getafe CF (2-1)
Osasuna 1-0 Valencia CF
RCD Espanyol 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Week 29: Team of the week

Varas, Sevilla - Golden Man

Javi Varas was Week 29's golden player and his 28 points shows us just how good he and Sevilla's defence had to be to secure their surprise 1-0 win at Valencia. A staggering points haul from the Sevilla no. 2 who was worth just 4 a few weeks ago, and worth just 11.9 at the start of this week.

Osasuna have the most representatives in the top 11: 2 defenders and one midfielder. This reflects the dominance they exerted in their emphatic, and somewhat astonishing 4-0 win at Hercules. Los Rojillos are in a rich vein of form and with 11 points, even without a goal, no wonder defender Nacho Monreal is being targeted by the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal.

A worthy mention must go to Osasuna's Goalkeeper Ricardo who had another inspired game between the sticks and racked up an excellent 22 points with 6 saves. Man Utd, in the hunt for a replacement for Van der Sar, could do a lot worse than "doing a Wenger" and bringing back an ex-golden oldie goalie. 39 yr old Ricardo was barely given a sniff in his brief stint at United between 2002 and 2005.

Sergio Aguero and Jose Reyes once again proved that you don't have to be a winner to get a good points haul. While Atletico went down 2-1, the Kun, Aguero, continued his outrageously good form with a goal and 22 pts (4 goals in his last 3 games). No clamours for the wunderkid to move to a bigger club keep bubbling to the surface.

The Guardian's Sid Lowe suggested that Aguero played virtually by himself against Real in the derby, but Reyes' total of 15, without a goal would tells us the ex-Arsenal forward showed plenty of attacking threat even if he couldn't trouble the scorers. Whilst wearing the Arsenal shirt he once got a 30pts in a week in the EPL version of the game without scoring a goal.

Rondon (left), Malaga

Malaga stiker Jose Rondon also continued his excellent form, bagging a brace to help Manuel Pellegrino's relegation threatened side ease to a 2-0 over European hopefuls Espanyol and secure their second win on the bounce. Rondon now has 12 goals, as many as Aguero and Peppe Rossi.

Racing's Kennedy and Sociedad's Griezmann were the dominant forces for either side, scoring a goal apiece as Santander edged a 2-1 win over the Basques. Spurs' Giovanni Dos Santos sealed the win to get his second in eight Liga games for Racing.

After a quiet few weeks Jonathon De Guzman popped up to re-assert himself as Mallorca's leading points scorer with the only goal in Mallorca's 1-0 win over Zaragoza. His 15 points takes his tally to 158 for the season.

The surprise package of the week has to be Villarreal's defender Musacchio. Without scoring a goal, and from a value of just 2.79, Mussachio registered 12 points, as the Yellow Submarine capitalised on Valencia's loss to re-capture 3rd place

Personal Higlights?

Farinos

FARINOS (HERCULES)

Despite Hercules' taking a 4-0 pasting at home to Osasuna, the midfield maestro almost made the team of the week, managing 14.5 points from a value of 5.79.

Team of the week 29

How the best scoring XI would have looked:

Name,team,position,points
J. Varas SEV Goalkeeper 28.00

Nelson OSA Defender 19.50
M. Musacchio VIL Defender 12.00
N. Monreal OSA Defender 11.00

J. Camuñas OSA Midfielder 17.00
J. Reyes AMR Midfielder 15.00
K. Bakircioglü RAC Midfielder 15.00
J. de Guzmán MAL Midfielder 15.00

S. Agüero AMR Forward 22.00
J. Rondón MGA Forward 21.00
A. Griezmann RSO Forward 16.50

Total: 192

My team:

The winning team:

Week 20: Caicedo? Piatti? Adriano?

Barcelona (1st) v Racing Santander (14th)

Adriano, should start for Barca

Of course a home win for Barca over Kennedy Bakircioglu's Racing, who are now under new ownership. The question of course is how many and who will score. They have a full strength side apart from at right back where Dani Alves is out meaning Adriano fills in. The Brazilian has a relatively unremarkable record of 16.5 points in 7 appearances but has appeared in the last two weeks and did score 9.5 in week 18 during the 4-0 win at Depor. Could be worth a punt at 7.25.

Messi is 43.48, Villa 30.88: Pedro still feels like a bargain at 21.16. Xavi is 13.99 but only has scored +10 3 times this year, Iniesta is 15.67 and has scored in 3 of the past 5 weeks.

Real Mad (2nd) v Mallorca (9th)

So Real will look to get back to winning ways against Mallorca who were pumped 3-0 by "the other" Madrid last weekend. Mourinho will have the same selection issues up front with Benzema (11.69) and Kaka (10.21) vying for a starting spot. Strangely, Ronaldo not included, Real still have some of the best bargains around and it seems at once naive and prudent to persevere with having 4 of Real's possible starting 5 forwards in keeping hold of the above along with Ozil (5.45) (6.11) and Di Maria. It's in defence where changes need to be made where card prone Carvalho and Albiol need to be given a rest.

Villarreal (3rd) v Real Sociedad (11th)

Cazorla returns

Should be a straight forward win for Villarreal with no new injury worries. Lovely Ruben has to be kept, his value soaring to 9.56 from 6.55 (1 goal, 1 assist and 3 SOTs last week). It's a case of how many spots are left over from the Real bargains to squeeze in some Yellows. It's tempting to get in Cani and Cazorla and some defenders. Spanish international Cazorla returns and is Villarreal's 3rd highest scorer with 144.5 this season, but pricey at 15.59.

Valencia (4th) v Malaga (16th)

Valencia need to keep winning to keep Espanyol at bay and keep up the heat on 3rd placed Villarreal. Problem is, they're a tough squad to pick from, seeing as it seems to comprise entirely of midfielders. Vicente looks a bargain at 6.67 but the winger scored -1 last week. Rumour has it that top scorer Adruiz will return this week too and that could see Vicente bumped.

Getafe (8th) v Espanyol (5th)

Espanyol need to win over unpredictable Getafe. Espanyol players don't get a lot of points and their best players are pricey - Callejon (16.22) and Kameni (15.88). Could be as well to leave this fixture alone.

Sevilla (10th) v LEV (19th)

This looks like a good fixture to pick up some points. Seville are scoring in the league and the cup. Romaric (only 5.75) is tipped by Goal.com to be the key man for Seville but there's a host of tempting attacking and defensive picks - Kanoute (15.91), Fabiano (18.21), Navas (15.03). Think I'll draft in Martin Caceres in defence. This Uruguayan chap is on loan from Barca having cost the champions 16.5million euros a couple of seasons back but has failed to establish himself at Barca, or at Juve (loan last year). He's only 5.75 and should get a clean sheet.

However, he will need to be sharp to marshal Levante's in form striker Felipe Caicedo (on loan from Man City).  The Ecuadorian, who cost City $7million from Basel and scored 8 goals under Mark Hughes in his first full season, has 7 goals in 13 appearances at Levante this term.


And the rest?

Almeria have a mysterious forward called Piatti (15.67) who is the 5th highest scoring player (165.5) who is not from Barca or Real. They're playing home to struggling Osasuna.




Also, lumbering Llorente, 4th top scorer in the league on 11, has a home game for Bilbao against Hercules.

Sun

Sporting Gijon v Athl Madrid
Real Zaragoza v Deportivo
Almería v Osasuna

Mon

Athl Bilbao v HER

My team:

Diego Lopez (Villa)

Gaspar (villa)
Alexis (sev)
Caceres (sev)

Ozil (Real)
Di Maria (Real)
Kaka (Real)
Cani (Villa)

Benzema (Real)
Ruben (Villa)
Pedro (Barca)

Cani against Osasuna from halfway