La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5

Week 33 predictions

Week 33 predictions using Spiegelhalter's model + players I like this week:

Valencia CF 0-1 Real Madrid

FC Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna**
(BAR) Affellay, Bojan, Keita

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad*
(BIL) Muniain, Toquero, Amorebieta

Racing Santander 1-1 Málaga CF*
(RAC) Munitis, Dos Santos

RCD Mallorca 1-0 Getafe CF
(MAL) Aouate, Nsue, Ramis, De Guzman

Sporting Gijón 1-0 RCD Espanyol
(SPO)Eguren

Hércules CF 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña
(HER) Portillo, Trezeguet

Atlético Madrid 1-0 Levante UD*
(ATL) Aguero, Reyes, Diego Costa, De Gea

Sevilla FC 1-1 Villarreal CF
(SEV) Rakitic

Real Zaragoza 1-0 UD Almería*
(ZAR) Jarosik, Braulio, Ponzio, Bertolo


*Asteriksed wins are rated +50% likely. i.e. best results to back.

Last weeks predictions: (actual results in bold)

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL 3-0
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR 1-1
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL 0-3
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV 1-0
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL 1-2
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC 2-0
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR 2-2
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG 1-0


1 correct score
5 correct results (win,draw, or loss)

Spain's Squad to face the Czech Republic and Lithuania

Week 29: Team of the week

Varas, Sevilla - Golden Man

Javi Varas was Week 29's golden player and his 28 points shows us just how good he and Sevilla's defence had to be to secure their surprise 1-0 win at Valencia. A staggering points haul from the Sevilla no. 2 who was worth just 4 a few weeks ago, and worth just 11.9 at the start of this week.

Osasuna have the most representatives in the top 11: 2 defenders and one midfielder. This reflects the dominance they exerted in their emphatic, and somewhat astonishing 4-0 win at Hercules. Los Rojillos are in a rich vein of form and with 11 points, even without a goal, no wonder defender Nacho Monreal is being targeted by the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal.

A worthy mention must go to Osasuna's Goalkeeper Ricardo who had another inspired game between the sticks and racked up an excellent 22 points with 6 saves. Man Utd, in the hunt for a replacement for Van der Sar, could do a lot worse than "doing a Wenger" and bringing back an ex-golden oldie goalie. 39 yr old Ricardo was barely given a sniff in his brief stint at United between 2002 and 2005.

Sergio Aguero and Jose Reyes once again proved that you don't have to be a winner to get a good points haul. While Atletico went down 2-1, the Kun, Aguero, continued his outrageously good form with a goal and 22 pts (4 goals in his last 3 games). No clamours for the wunderkid to move to a bigger club keep bubbling to the surface.

The Guardian's Sid Lowe suggested that Aguero played virtually by himself against Real in the derby, but Reyes' total of 15, without a goal would tells us the ex-Arsenal forward showed plenty of attacking threat even if he couldn't trouble the scorers. Whilst wearing the Arsenal shirt he once got a 30pts in a week in the EPL version of the game without scoring a goal.

Rondon (left), Malaga

Malaga stiker Jose Rondon also continued his excellent form, bagging a brace to help Manuel Pellegrino's relegation threatened side ease to a 2-0 over European hopefuls Espanyol and secure their second win on the bounce. Rondon now has 12 goals, as many as Aguero and Peppe Rossi.

Racing's Kennedy and Sociedad's Griezmann were the dominant forces for either side, scoring a goal apiece as Santander edged a 2-1 win over the Basques. Spurs' Giovanni Dos Santos sealed the win to get his second in eight Liga games for Racing.

After a quiet few weeks Jonathon De Guzman popped up to re-assert himself as Mallorca's leading points scorer with the only goal in Mallorca's 1-0 win over Zaragoza. His 15 points takes his tally to 158 for the season.

The surprise package of the week has to be Villarreal's defender Musacchio. Without scoring a goal, and from a value of just 2.79, Mussachio registered 12 points, as the Yellow Submarine capitalised on Valencia's loss to re-capture 3rd place

Personal Higlights?

Farinos

FARINOS (HERCULES)

Despite Hercules' taking a 4-0 pasting at home to Osasuna, the midfield maestro almost made the team of the week, managing 14.5 points from a value of 5.79.

Team of the week 29

How the best scoring XI would have looked:

Name,team,position,points
J. Varas SEV Goalkeeper 28.00

Nelson OSA Defender 19.50
M. Musacchio VIL Defender 12.00
N. Monreal OSA Defender 11.00

J. Camuñas OSA Midfielder 17.00
J. Reyes AMR Midfielder 15.00
K. Bakircioglü RAC Midfielder 15.00
J. de Guzmán MAL Midfielder 15.00

S. Agüero AMR Forward 22.00
J. Rondón MGA Forward 21.00
A. Griezmann RSO Forward 16.50

Total: 192

My team:

The winning team:

Weel 22 preview: Can Madrid help Madrid?

Can Madrid help Madrid?

Banana skins afoot this weekend. There are several fixtures which should be easy on paper but... but. In form Bilbao should beat Gijon, but Gijon are also in fine form (see last 3 weeks). Villarreal should hand a pasting to Levante, but this is a local derby, anything could happen. Real Madrid must surely get back to winning ways against Sociedad, but Sociedad have been handy away from home recently. And every neutral would like to see Barcelona slip up against Atletico Madrid, if only for a hope the title race, could re-open.

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid

Atletico are wobbly. No reason for Barca not to score 4 or 5. Any of Barca's front three could do the trick. Pedro is on a hot run of form.

At. Bilbao v Sporting Gijon

Both sides in great form, but Bilbao have been particularly strong on the stat scoring front in recent weeks. Llorente and Muniain up front through to Iraoriz in goal should all post good returns. If Gijon win this, it will be another shock.

Real Madrid v Sociedad

Surely Madrid will pick themselves up and get back to winning ways against the Basques. A good chance that Adebayor will start after his goalscoring feat in the cup on Wednesday and he represents excellent value at 8.4 in Fantasy world. Expect lots of shots from Ronaldo as per usual.

Villarreal v Levante

A local derby, but a match of the ilk of Bilbao v Gijon: the home side could easily be in for a shock. Villarreal have no new injury worries and Rossi is on hot, hot form. Sensible money would be on Villarreal and any of their attacking players.

Osasuna v Mallorca

Would expect a home win for Osasuna on the back of last week's triumph over Real. Mallorca however, will have been wounded by their shocking 4-0 turn around at home to Gijon. This match will show whether that was a blip or whether the islanders are on the slide. Osasuna's Ricardo surely a solid pick in gk.

Sevilla's Javi Varas. Great value

Special Bargain of the week:

Seville's J. Varas represents the bargain of the week at 4.46. At home to Malaga, the GK can expect a score well in place of the injured Palop.

Sat, Feb 5 Athl Bilbao v Sporting
Sat, Feb 5 Barcelona v Athl Madrid
Sat, Feb 5 Zaragoza v Racing
Sat, Feb 5 Getafe v Deportivo
Sat, Feb 5 Osasuna v Mallorca
Sat, Feb 5 Villarreal v LEV
Sat, Feb 5 Almería v Espanyol
Sun, Feb 6 Valencia v HER
Sun, Feb 6 Real Mad v RSO
Sun, Feb 6 Sevilla v Malaga

Week 21: Sunday review - Sporting hits

The story of the week will be this: Real's title challenge is over. It was more or less over a couple of weeks ago when they drew at Almeria, but this sealed the deal. Mourinho's men have been grasping and stumbling to stay on their feat in the title race but a 1-0 loss at Osasuna, while Barca cruised to another effortless win, 3-0 away win at Hercules hammered the points home. Barca are 7 clear.



So much of prescient sporting prediction is about assuring that the statistical probable truths stay firmly at the forefront of one's thinking: any whiff of hopes and dreams about what may occur must be kept securely under wraps. We must not confuse what is going to happen with what will. Thus, just because a team who's record breaking form is proving that they are one of, if not the, greatest teams in history had a blip against a minnow side at the start of the season, does not mean it is going to happen twice (or that you should cast off their most consistent scorers); nor does it mean that a top 10 side who have emphatically won two home games on the trot will repeat the feat against a side from the bottom half of the table.

Osasuna 1 - 0 Real Madrid... down and out in the autonomous community of Navarre

Javier Camunas - PES likeness

For the whites, once again, Ronaldo top scored in stats (11.5pts 2 SOTs and 5 Fws) but didn't score a goal, once again no other player evidenced any kind of attacking threat - of the rest Di Maria top scored with 4 pts.

For Osasuna, Ricardo - as in week 18 - was superb in goal, scoring handsomely with 15 pts (4 saves) and was joint top scorer for the reds alongside match winning midfielder Javier Camuñas. Defender S. Fernandez got a notable 10.5 and has scored 9+ in 3 of the past 6 weeks. Ex Birmingham City striker Walter Pandiani reminded us of his qualities with a -1.5.

Hercules 0 - 3 Barca... top banana

Messi got 2 goals and only his 2nd +20 score in 6 weeks with 33 points. His value is still 43. Pedro (who I inexplicably dropped) got another goal and 19.5 pts. Dani Alves returned to score 2 assists and 17.5 points. Quite pleasingly, Villa (worth 29) scored -0.5. Such a risky pick.

Mallorca 0 - 4 Sporting Gijon... A tale of two Castros

This has to be the shock scoreline from Saturday night's results. Mallorca may have lost their last two games - away to the Madrids - but they had been in good home form and put up a strong fight at the Bernabeau. They had won their last two home games 4-1 and 3-0. But, alas, the warning signs were there: only last week Sporting's "shock" defeat of Atletico was being praised on these pages.

Last night's results saw these two sides consentinaed together: Mallorca plummeting to 11th with Gijon leaping to 12th. Punting for Mallorca's keeper Dudu Aouate (-14) was a grievous error; hotly tipped defender Nunes folded (-2); striker Pierre Webo (brought in for Barca's Pedro) limped to 0.5; at least midfielder Gonzalo Castro put up some resistance with 9.



For Sporting, another Castro (Diego) was the hero with a brace from midfield and 18pts. Former Rangers striker Nacho Novo also got on the scoresheet and notched a worthy 10.

Real Sociedad 2 - 0 Almeria... this is Basque country

Real Madrid and Mallorca took account for 7 of my 11 and cumulatively left me a little queasy. Luckily RSO didn't "do a Mallorca" and Basque boys Tamudo and Xavi Prieto gave me a little more faith in myself. Tamudo got a goal and a delicious 20.5 pts (from value 6). Xavi got a respectable 8.

Espanyol 0 - 1 Villarreal... gunning for you

This was a huge win for The Yellow Submarine (s?) over the excellent Espanyol and will have Real Madrid looking over their shoulders: 3rd place villarreal are in form and 6 points behind. The match winner once again was Rossi (18 points) and Diego Lopez in goal found his gloves (now that I dropped him) with 17 pts!

I was happy to have Sergio Garcia for the Catalans. Valued 11, the striker got a respectable 9.

Deportivo 3 - 3 Seville 

Didier Zokora - gorgeous ball

An exciting match, unusually for the obdurate Deportivo. Julien Escude scored again for Seville and striker Alvaro Negrego got a brace and 20.5 points, his second scored "via a gorgeous ball from Didier Zokora". Inexplicably, I held on to Martin Caceres from last week and he got 3 pts.

Lassad Nouioui did the business for Depor with two himself and 20 pts. A quick look at Deportivo's team stats tells me that, yes, the legendary Juan Valeron does still play for them, but is sadly worth just 3.5, his highest score of the season being 2.5.

Other results:

Atlético Madrid 0 - 2 Athletic Bilbao

Lots of big points for Bilbao as they stretched the gap between themselves in 6th and Madrid in 7th to 5 points. Toquerro 2 goals and 26 points (the striker's first goals of the season). GK Gorka Iraizoz 24 points. Defender Iraola a majestic 17.

Pongolle - On call

Levante UD 2 - 0 Getafe CF

A goal and assist for Caicedo
Del Horno 13 pts

Málaga CF 1 - 2 Real Zaragoza

Duda got 21 points yet oddly his price plummeted from 21 to 16.
Sinama Pongolle was amongst the goals for Zaragoza.

Still to play: Racing Santander v Valencia

Week 21 preview: Barca's achilles heal - Hercules

Hercules (12th) v Barca (1st) - sat

Xinhuanet reminds us this week that "FC Barcelona travels to Alicante to face the only side to defeat them this season in Spain' s matchday 21 on Saturday."

Dani Alves has been training and could be back so Adriano may disappear back to the underworld before he is called upon again. Pedro should continue for me in attack. It doesn't seem necessary or tempting to splash out on expensive wonders such as Villa or Messi. Hercules main worry is Royston Drenthe. The dutch flanker has been in great form but since the recent pay dispute he and and his side seem to be in freefall.

Tempting players: only Pedro, maybe.

Osasuna (17th) v Real Madrid (2nd) - sun

Ade checks in

Real's new signing Emmanual Adebayor may be a boon for Jose Mourinho but the arrival of the Togolese striker only adds more uncertainty to the Real Madrid forward line for fantasy pickers. He's rumoured to be a certain starter but will Benzema be ditched after his match winning performance last week? Much aspersions have been cast about the French no.9 Benzema, who, it turns out, isn't a no.9 at all.

Tempting players: after recent disappointments, none feel safe.

Mallorca (9th) v Sporting Gijon (15th) - sat

Pierre Webo

This fixture would seem to offer the most juicy returns with Mallorca surely set to get back to winning ways against the league minnows. Forwards Tereja, Nsue, Perreira and Webo (all valued around the 10 mark) all started at the Bernabeau and any of these will surely be a profitable selection.

I'm tempted by Webo, if only because he's their top scorer and I haven't given him a run out before. It seems prudent to give him a run out at the expense of Benzema. I've also drafted in Nunes in defence after his glowing recommendation by Goal.com.

Tempting players: anyone who's fit at Mallorca, especially defensive line (GK Aouate) and forwards.

A.Madrid (7th) v A.Bilbao (6th) - sun

The clash of the Atleticos is one of the ties of the round. Madrid are stumbling along but could welcome back Reyes and Aguero. Bilbao however are flying and should be well in the mood to score an upset.

Tempting players: A.Madrid bargain defenders A.Lopez (2.46) and Perea (2.62).

Espanyol (5th) v Villarreal (3rd) - sun

Another exciting and hard to predict tie. It seems worth hanging on to baby Ruben up front for Villarreal, especially as Espanyol have just sold one of their best defenders. It would be nice to draft in a couple of Espanyol forward players such as Sergio Garcia or Callejon, but Villarreal's defenders and keeper will have to go.

Tempting players: Espanyol forwards, Garcia (a bargain at 11), Callejon (18) and Luis Garcia (16)

Tamudo

Real Sociedad (11th) v Almeria (18th) - sat

Could be an apt time to draft in superstar Xavi Prieto from the Sociedad midfield. The young buck has dropped in value to 12.76 and is surely likely to do the business for a Sociedad side who seem to be finding some form.

Also, veteran striker Tamudo comes in up front in the place of injured Javier Llorente and represents a tempting replacement for Villarreal's Ruben at 6.64.


Other games to consider:

Sat, Jan 29 Malaga v Zaragoza: a first win for newly moneyed Malaga against struggling Z?
Sat, Jan 29 Deportivo v Seville: a turgid but likely win for Seville.
Sat, Jan 29 Levante v Getafe: A good opportunity for Getafe to get their season back on track
Mon, Jan 31 Racing Santander v Valencia: Surely a win for Los Chos.

Week 20: Barral of laughs

Gijon goal hero David Barral - on sea

Wins for the top 5 give the illusion of another predictable week in La Liga, but scratch beneath the surface and aberrations soon become apparent. For the second time in a row, neither Messi (19.5 pts) or Ronaldo (8.5pts!) would feature in the top starting 11 of the week; Atletico Madrid lost to relegation threatened Sporting "Hee-Haw" Gijon; and Benzema managed to score a goal!

Barcelona stretched their lead at the top briefly to 7 points on Saturday, yawning to a 3-0 defeat of Racing Santander at the Nou Camp. Iniesta (1goal, 14pts), Messi (1 pen, 1 assist, 19.5 pts) and Pedro (1 goal, 1 assist, 20.5 pts) were the heroes. Pedro has now scored 10+ points 9 weeks in a row! (Messi has managed this 3 weeks running). Adriano, in at full back, exceeded expectations and managed a handsome 9 pts and was 5th top scorer for Barca. Victor Valdes was joint top scoring keeper with 16 pts, suggesting Barca didn't have it all their way. Kennedy Bakircioglü managed 4pts (2 successful crosses and 4 intercepted passes) for the visitors.

Real Madrid strained to a 1-0 home win over Real Mallorca, courtesy of Benzema's 60th minute strike with the Frenchman scoring 15.5 overall. He got a Tackle Won too. Points were spare at the Bernabeau though: Kaka (2pts), who was subbed at half time for Ozil (1pt) and Di Maria (6pt) are proving to be the albatrosses around my fantasy neck: it may be time to shoot them down.



With these losers hogging my midfield, I rewarded my last midfield berth to last week's top scoring midfielder, Villarreal's Cani. Of course though, another prediction was to come to bare as Santi Cazorla (18pts) returned to assume responsibility for the best of the Yellow Submarine's attacking play, laying on two assists for Peppe Rossi as the 3rd placed side triumphed 2-1 over Real Sociedad.  Cani stepped aside, managed 1 measly SOT and a YC to get himself a tedious 3.5 (for an investment of 13). Of course, all in all, this also meant no goals for baby Ruben (4.5), and minimal returns for GK Diego Lopez (3) and Gaspar (3.5) in defence. Curses on Sociedad and their persistant ability to cause problems away from home.

Old (or no) money conquered over new as Valencia romped to a thrilling 4-3 victory over plucky Malaga. Still glad I stayed away from this one though. Goals were scored by Mata, Soldado, Adruiz (14pts) and wunderkind, Ever Banega (12pts) but only the latter two were able to return more points than their value (which leads me to wonder how often players ever do this anyway). Julio "the Beast" Baptista got his first for Malaga and other new signing Martin Demichelis was sent off!





Espanyol kept a grip on 5th place with a 3-1 win at Getafe. More goals from Callejon (again), Sergio Garcia, and Luis Garcia showing they are more than coping without leading scorer Peter Osvaldo.

Athletic Bilbao leapfrogged "the other" Athletic (Madrid) to take 6th spot as the Basques crushed Hercules 3-0. Of course, Llorente scored (but only managed 10 pts) and so did reliable midfield force, Javier Marquez, and the lesser known forward Iker Muniain. Signor Muniain scored for the second game running to take his season total to 2 (from 17 games).

Sevilla continued their surge up the league, bouncing into 8th place, thanks to a 4-1 drubbing of Levante who are now rooted to the bottom of the table. Fabiano's hattrick (putting him top of the weekly scorers chart with 31pts) and a rare goal from forgotten french defender Julien Escude put the league strugglers to the sword. Ivorian playmaker Romaric (valued 5.96 at the start of the week) scored a super 11.5: 1 Assist and 5 Successful crosses being his key stats. However, it must also be noted that Kanoute failed to start, and neither did either of my defensive picks: Caceres and Alexis.



Which, sporting miscellany and regrets brings me to the end of the games featuring my chosen 11.

Aranda, great brace

In other results, Almeria scored an invaluable 3 - 2 win over fellow strugglers Osasuna to get off the foot of the table and go 18th. This game included a couple of braces to produce two of the week's highest scorers in Ulloa (21 pts and 2 goals) for Almeria, and Aranda for Osasuna (22.5 pts, 2 goals)


Real Zaragoza also scored a valuable 1 - 0 over Deportivo. A goal from bargain of the week Boutahar (18pts valued 1.82!!!) keeping Sinama Pongolle's side 2 points clear of the relegation zone.



Goal.com team of the week:

Team of the week:


Luis Fabiano, Sevilla, Forward, 31.50
G. Rossi, Villarreal, Forward, 31.00
J. Rondón, Malaga, Forward, 27.00 

S. Cazorla, Villarreal, Midfielder, 18.00
S. Boutahar, Zaragoza, Midfielder, 18.00
Javier Martínez, Athl Bilbao, Midfielder, 15.00
Xisco Muñoz, LEV, Midfielder, 14.50 

J. Escudé, Sevilla, Defender, 15.00
Marcelo, Real Mad, Defender, 9.50
Adriano, Barcelona, Defender, 9.00 

G. Iraizoz, Athl Bilbao, Goalkeeper, 16.00

Total 204.5


Winning team:

La Moupedia

My team:

Dos Donuts: week20

Week 20: Caicedo? Piatti? Adriano?

Barcelona (1st) v Racing Santander (14th)

Adriano, should start for Barca

Of course a home win for Barca over Kennedy Bakircioglu's Racing, who are now under new ownership. The question of course is how many and who will score. They have a full strength side apart from at right back where Dani Alves is out meaning Adriano fills in. The Brazilian has a relatively unremarkable record of 16.5 points in 7 appearances but has appeared in the last two weeks and did score 9.5 in week 18 during the 4-0 win at Depor. Could be worth a punt at 7.25.

Messi is 43.48, Villa 30.88: Pedro still feels like a bargain at 21.16. Xavi is 13.99 but only has scored +10 3 times this year, Iniesta is 15.67 and has scored in 3 of the past 5 weeks.

Real Mad (2nd) v Mallorca (9th)

So Real will look to get back to winning ways against Mallorca who were pumped 3-0 by "the other" Madrid last weekend. Mourinho will have the same selection issues up front with Benzema (11.69) and Kaka (10.21) vying for a starting spot. Strangely, Ronaldo not included, Real still have some of the best bargains around and it seems at once naive and prudent to persevere with having 4 of Real's possible starting 5 forwards in keeping hold of the above along with Ozil (5.45) (6.11) and Di Maria. It's in defence where changes need to be made where card prone Carvalho and Albiol need to be given a rest.

Villarreal (3rd) v Real Sociedad (11th)

Cazorla returns

Should be a straight forward win for Villarreal with no new injury worries. Lovely Ruben has to be kept, his value soaring to 9.56 from 6.55 (1 goal, 1 assist and 3 SOTs last week). It's a case of how many spots are left over from the Real bargains to squeeze in some Yellows. It's tempting to get in Cani and Cazorla and some defenders. Spanish international Cazorla returns and is Villarreal's 3rd highest scorer with 144.5 this season, but pricey at 15.59.

Valencia (4th) v Malaga (16th)

Valencia need to keep winning to keep Espanyol at bay and keep up the heat on 3rd placed Villarreal. Problem is, they're a tough squad to pick from, seeing as it seems to comprise entirely of midfielders. Vicente looks a bargain at 6.67 but the winger scored -1 last week. Rumour has it that top scorer Adruiz will return this week too and that could see Vicente bumped.

Getafe (8th) v Espanyol (5th)

Espanyol need to win over unpredictable Getafe. Espanyol players don't get a lot of points and their best players are pricey - Callejon (16.22) and Kameni (15.88). Could be as well to leave this fixture alone.

Sevilla (10th) v LEV (19th)

This looks like a good fixture to pick up some points. Seville are scoring in the league and the cup. Romaric (only 5.75) is tipped by Goal.com to be the key man for Seville but there's a host of tempting attacking and defensive picks - Kanoute (15.91), Fabiano (18.21), Navas (15.03). Think I'll draft in Martin Caceres in defence. This Uruguayan chap is on loan from Barca having cost the champions 16.5million euros a couple of seasons back but has failed to establish himself at Barca, or at Juve (loan last year). He's only 5.75 and should get a clean sheet.

However, he will need to be sharp to marshal Levante's in form striker Felipe Caicedo (on loan from Man City).  The Ecuadorian, who cost City $7million from Basel and scored 8 goals under Mark Hughes in his first full season, has 7 goals in 13 appearances at Levante this term.


And the rest?

Almeria have a mysterious forward called Piatti (15.67) who is the 5th highest scoring player (165.5) who is not from Barca or Real. They're playing home to struggling Osasuna.




Also, lumbering Llorente, 4th top scorer in the league on 11, has a home game for Bilbao against Hercules.

Sun

Sporting Gijon v Athl Madrid
Real Zaragoza v Deportivo
Almería v Osasuna

Mon

Athl Bilbao v HER

My team:

Diego Lopez (Villa)

Gaspar (villa)
Alexis (sev)
Caceres (sev)

Ozil (Real)
Di Maria (Real)
Kaka (Real)
Cani (Villa)

Benzema (Real)
Ruben (Villa)
Pedro (Barca)

Week 19 review: Real disappointment

Ulloa (left) made Real sweat

Barcelona extended their lead at the top of La Liga to 4 points as Real Madrid suffered a shock draw away at bottom of the league Almeria, dropping points for only the fourth time this season. Barca - who had put eight past Almeria in November for no reply - cruised to a 4-1 victory at home to Malaga.

Madrid handed a first start of the season to Kaka, shifting Ronaldo to centre forward at the expense of Karem Benzema but the return of the Brazilian playmaker could not inspire what should have been a walk in the park. The stats suggest a pretty uninspired approach with Ronaldo repeatedly - maybe excessively - kicking the ball at the goalie. The Portuguese managed to hog the points with 18.5 (including 5 SOTs), while Almeria's Valencia bound keeper Alves managed to be the second highest scoring keeper of the week with 16pts.. Of the rest of the front 5 (of which I had all 4), Di Maria managed a respectable 11, Kaka 2, Ozil -0.5, and Benzema replaced Kaka in the second half, to score 5.5, laying on the assist for another substitute, Granero (who totalled 10.)


Raul Albiol continued his dull form in defence with a 0.5 (booked) and was the first of two players to get booked and subbed for the Dos Donuts.

Like Ronaldo, Messi also only managed a modest score with 14.5 in Barca's victory. David Villa got 2 goals and 24 points, Pedro (1, 15 pts) and Iniesta (1, 14.5). Affellay didn't manage to trouble the scorers, appearing as he did for merely 8 minutes at the end. For Malaga, Duda showed what he's all about with a gem of a free kick to score a late consolation.


On to 3rd placed Villarreal, who, as predicted, triumphed over Osasuna. Ruben was on the scoresheet as was Spanish international Capdevilla, Rodriguez and Cani (with his astonishing halfway strike and highest score of all midfielders with 21.5). Ruben scored 18.5, and was only denied more by a booking. Roma loan signing Cicinho, also made his first appearance for the Spaniads as a late substitute. Ex-West Brom midfielder Bojan Valero scored a very tidy 15pts despite not getting on the score sheet. In goal, I took a punt on Diego Lopez who was let down by conceding 2 and only managed 2.5 points.

Jeremy Mathieu's Pro Evo likeness

Valencia, only 2 points behind Villarreal in 4th placed, kept up the pressure with a 2-0 win over Deportivo. French full back Jeremy Matthieu stunned everyone with a winning goal and a whopping 29 pts (his previous high score was 6). Midfielder Pablo got the second. Hedwigs Maduro let me down in defence, where despite a clean sheet, he managed to get himself booked and substitituted (-2). The lad did only cost me 3.09 though. Juan Mata only got 7.5.

Elsewhere, despite my reservations, Atletico Madrid brushed aside the in form Mallorca 3-0 with goals from Forlan, Reyes and defender Valera. I was chuffed to have Reyes who was second highest midfield scorer of the week with 21 points, costing 16.29, but not as chuffed as I would have been to have goalkeeper De Gea as well, who top scored the week with 32 points! In defence I also managed to have Dominguez Soto as an afterthought at 3.29, but the bargain basement defender failed to materialise.




Refreshingly, the top scoring team this week would not include Ronaldo or Messi, and would have looked like this:

De Gea, 32, Atletico v Mallorca

Mathieu, 29 Val v Depor
Valera, 20 Atletico v Mallorca
M. Gonzalez, 16 RSO @ Getafe
Capdevilla, 15.5 Villa v Osasuna

Cani, 21.5 Villa v Osasuna
Reyes, 21 Atletico v Mallorca
Xavi Prieto, 18.5 RSO @ Getafe

Villa, 24 Barca v Malaga
Callejon, 22 Espan @ Seville
Ruben, 18.5 Villa v Osasuna

Total: 238

11th placed Real Sociedad's 4-0 win at 8th placed Getafe has to be one of the shock results of the week. The Basque playmaker Xabi Prieto looks a bit special: he's got 9+ in the last four weeks and averages 8.76. Maybe a little pricey, now at 15.5 though. Sociedad's M. Gonzalez is not the same Chilean/ South African who once played for Liverpool but a young Real local.

Juanmi Callejon got both the goals as Espanyol punished Sevilla's wastefulness. The Southerner's dominated possession but couldn't take their chances and the Catalans took advantage (see Sid Lowe for more) in clinical fashion. Callejon has 4 from 19 games for the season now and is Espanyol's top fit goalscorer with leading marksman Osvaldo now out for two months.

In Kennedy "Mr Kennedy" Bakircioglü news, the Swedish forward managed 12.5 points even as his side Racing Santander lost at Athtletico Bilbao.


Other results:

Athletic Bilbao 2 - 1 Racing Santander
Real Zaragoza 1 - 0 Levante UD
Sporting Gijón 2 - 0 Hércules CF

League Table

Goal.com's team of the week
Week 19's winning team: Betancunia 2011

Team of the Week: Betancunia 2011

My team: Dos Donuts

Cani against Osasuna from halfway