Tuesday night action: Granada 0 - 1 Barcelona, Sevilla 2-2 Racing

Key points:

• 1 goal from Xavi.
• Lots of bookings and cards all round
• Good points for Barca defenders. Notably Maxwell.
• Barca youth striker Cuenca played 90 mins but not available for FF selection yet.
• Fabregas back from injury. Played 71 mins.
• Out of form Pedro now injured.
• Granada seem pretty handy at keeping the scores down.

Teams and FF points scores:

Barca team and individual FF scores v GRN

Granada team and individual FF scores v Barca

Predicted number of goals:

Barcelona to score 1 and Granada to score 0 was the most likely outcome.


Sevilla 2-2 Santander

Predictions

Sevilla were expected to score 2 goals or 1, with an 81% chance of winning the tie. Santander were heavily favoured to score nothing so upset the odds with their 2 away goals. Essentially, for FF pickers, the sensible money would have been on goals and points for the home side players, which came through in the shape of Rakitic, Manu. Trochowski was the value pick, the former Hamburger Pole scoring 12 pts from a value of 4.

Day 10 preview

Barely time to pause and reflect on the weekend's action. Especially if you've been off-line in Tallinn all weekend. The predictor has put in a sound performance though. The major shock only really being Varas' astonishing GK performance for Sevilla (although, Kaka's ability to score 0pts as Real routed Malaga 4-0 caused some consternation. The Real Betis bubble seems well and truly burst with their dour home defeat to Vallecano. Raul Garcia is quickly becoming an undroppable demi-god for Osasuna. I need him




Key points for Matchday 10.

• The huge favourites are Real Madrid, Sevilla and Levante 
• Where do I trust the goals be: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Seville, Mallorca.
• I haven't had time to change my team this week, but if I had, I would have liked any from:
• Barcelona: Iniesta, Villa, Messi, Fabregas
• Sevilla:Rakitic, Manu, Navas
• Real Madrid: Ronaldo, Ozil, Higuain, Kaka
• Levante: Kone, Juanlu, Valdo
• Mallorca:Hemad, Castro, Nsue
  

Week 9: predictions

• Most likely wins: Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Real Betis
• Where do I trust the goals be: Barcelona, Malaga, Real Madrid, Sociedad, Atletico Madrid, Real Betis.
• Barcelona: Alves, Iniesta, Villa, Messi, Pedro
• Malaga: Cazorla, Van Nistelrooy,
• Real Madrid: Ronaldo, Ozil, Higuain, Kaka
• Sociedad:I. Agirretxe, D. Zurutuza, A. Griezmann,
• Atletico Madrid: Falcao, Diego, Reyes
• Real Betis: Benat, Sevilla, Santa Cruz

La Liga Week 8 Predictions

Obvious winners the top two. Of the rest, I like the look of Vallecano v Espanyol and fancy midfielder Michu to do well. I also expect Getafe to do one over Villarreal - or at least score a couple. The home side have been high scoring unlucky losers in recent weeks. Miku is solid up front, Pedro Leon is good value in midfield and striker Guiza is surely due a goal. Sevilla should cruise past Gijon but their forward line is unpredictable with form man Negredo injured. I like Sevilla defenders, like Coke. Although the maths says Levante Malaga will be 0-0 these sides are both unpredictably good at the moment. I like the look of Aruna Kone for Levante, a bargain striker whose already done for Real Madrid this season. Are Bilbao now going to hit a bit of form after two wins on the bounce? Muniain and Llorente should do well in this one.

From Barca, sure go for Messi and Villa. Pedro is a bargain. Pique is back. Fabregas is out, but Thiago might do something.

For Real, Benzema is injured. Not sure if Higuain will be tired. Kaka and Ozil are nice midfield options.

La Liga Week 7 Predictions

Huge favourites are Valencia, Malaga and Barcelona. The only thing that's bugging me is who to go for in the Valencia midfield. Rotation is definite. Is it worth taking a punt on Jonas or Tino starting?

Liga weekend predictions: Sunday May 15th

The predictor shows heavily favoured wins for Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bilbao, Valencia and Sevilla. The only one I'm dubious about is Bilbao who are up against in form Malaga. I know the Basque side have one of the best home records in the league but Malaga have the best form playing anywhere in the league at the moment.

Either way, it would be prudent to pick up Bilbao's bargain GK Iraizoz at 6. The only other temptation for me might be Muniain. Malaga, I don't fancy any Malaga guys. The form men, Duda and Baptista too expensive.

Barcelona will be in a party mood and it could be a question of how many at home to Depor. I'm tempted to go with Messi even though he has really slowed down in scoring. I have a feeling his teammates will be helping him score as many as poss to catch Ronaldo. Elsewhere I'm hanging on to Keita and Affellay who are still great bargains.

Valencia and A.Mad should both cruise to home wins. Valencia will want to secure that 3rd place. Soldado, Jonas and Banega tempt. For Atleti I fancy Aguero. This could well be his last home game and Hercules will be despondent following their confirmed relegation. I quite like the idea of Koke as well. Possibly Diego Costa on the cheap.

Sevilla, while heavy favourites could be upset by a Sociedad side in a bit of form and in need of points. With Negredo's price ballooning following his scoring run, there's no great value to be had with the southern side. Maybe Capel, possibly Romaric at a stretch.

Outside of the heavy favourites, i'll be staying away from Villarreal v Real Madrid as both teams have little to play for. I like the look of Almeria at home to Mallorca following their excellent 0-0 with Villarreal. GK Esteban and striker Piatti are worth a punt. Getafe need a result more than Osasuna and I expect a win with Parejo heavily involved.

My temptations:

GK
Leo Franco, RZG, 4
Esteben, Alm, 9
Iraizoz, Bil, 6

Defs
F. Amorebieta, Bil 1.00
X. Castillo, Bil, 1.3

Mids
Affellay, Bar, 1.9
Keita, Bar, 4.8
Parejo, Getaffe, 10
Castro, Spo, 5.9
Banega, Val, 7.9
Reyes, A.Mad, 15
De Las Cuevas, Gjon, 10.4
Boutahar, RZG, 5.8
Acosta, Sev, 1.9
Capel, Sev, 7.9

Att
Kanoute, Sev, 10
Piatti, Alm, 13
Muniain, Bil, 10
Soldado, Val, 19
Jonas, Val, 13
Getafe, Miku, 9
Aguero, A.Mad,25
Villa, Bar, 20
Messi, Bar, 36

Team of the week - midweek games:

Ronaldo, R.Madrid, 35.5
Negredo, Sevilla, 22.5
Kike Sola, 21.5

Sendoa, Hercules, 21.5
Kennedy, Racing, 18
Eliseu, Malaga, 17.5
Gabi, 16

Galan, Espanyol, 14
Luna, Almeria, 13.5
Marcelo, Real Madrid, 11.5

Esteban, Almeria, 15

La Liga: Predictions week 35

Week 35 Predictions

This weeks predictions according to Spiegelhalter see heavily favoured wins for Barcelona (89%), Atletico Madrid (72%), Valencia (69%), Atletico Bilbao (59%) and Real Madrid (58%).

Of course, Spiegelhalter does not take into account the factors that influence a catalunian derby but a heavy defeat for Espanyol looks on the cards either way. Barca will be expected to rest their big guns as per last week so it seems prudent to stick with Affellay and go for outsiders such as Thiago and Jeffren again. We should at least get goals.

Atletico Madrid are in hot, hot form and Spiegelhalter only backs up what we all know to expect from their tie with Malaga: goals. This game should yield lots of goals, whatever the result with Malaga also scoring freely in recent games. Sticking with the likes of Aguero and Reyes appears safe but it could be a worthy gamble to take a punt on Forlan or Diego Costa.

Valencia will surely get back to winning ways at home to Sociedad even if the Basques scored that shocker over Real last week. Jonas feels like a good pick.

Meanwhile, Bilbao look good for a home win over Levante. Muniain, Llorente and Toquero all feel like safe bets.

I don't like the look of Real away though, even though heavily favoured in the predictions, and will be staying away from this fixture.

This is the predictions in brief: get as many Barcelona, Bilbao, and A.Madrid guys as you can. I also like Miku and Rios from Getafe. Hope they help!

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

Week 33 predictions

Week 33 predictions using Spiegelhalter's model + players I like this week:

Valencia CF 0-1 Real Madrid

FC Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna**
(BAR) Affellay, Bojan, Keita

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad*
(BIL) Muniain, Toquero, Amorebieta

Racing Santander 1-1 Málaga CF*
(RAC) Munitis, Dos Santos

RCD Mallorca 1-0 Getafe CF
(MAL) Aouate, Nsue, Ramis, De Guzman

Sporting Gijón 1-0 RCD Espanyol
(SPO)Eguren

Hércules CF 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña
(HER) Portillo, Trezeguet

Atlético Madrid 1-0 Levante UD*
(ATL) Aguero, Reyes, Diego Costa, De Gea

Sevilla FC 1-1 Villarreal CF
(SEV) Rakitic

Real Zaragoza 1-0 UD Almería*
(ZAR) Jarosik, Braulio, Ponzio, Bertolo


*Asteriksed wins are rated +50% likely. i.e. best results to back.

Last weeks predictions: (actual results in bold)

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL 3-0
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR 1-1
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL 0-3
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV 1-0
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL 1-2
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC 2-0
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR 2-2
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG 1-0


1 correct score
5 correct results (win,draw, or loss)

Week 32 predictions

I dream of being able to mathematically predict the best fantasy football 11 going into the week on yahoo fantasy football. I've been working on a model to predict team scores first, then will move onto players. For now, I'm working on predictions for scores. Using Spiegelhalter's model I've got the following results predicted for next weekend's (16th April 2011) matches

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG