Top 5 players from each Liga team for first half of season

Liga weekend predictions: Sunday May 15th

The predictor shows heavily favoured wins for Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bilbao, Valencia and Sevilla. The only one I'm dubious about is Bilbao who are up against in form Malaga. I know the Basque side have one of the best home records in the league but Malaga have the best form playing anywhere in the league at the moment.

Either way, it would be prudent to pick up Bilbao's bargain GK Iraizoz at 6. The only other temptation for me might be Muniain. Malaga, I don't fancy any Malaga guys. The form men, Duda and Baptista too expensive.

Barcelona will be in a party mood and it could be a question of how many at home to Depor. I'm tempted to go with Messi even though he has really slowed down in scoring. I have a feeling his teammates will be helping him score as many as poss to catch Ronaldo. Elsewhere I'm hanging on to Keita and Affellay who are still great bargains.

Valencia and A.Mad should both cruise to home wins. Valencia will want to secure that 3rd place. Soldado, Jonas and Banega tempt. For Atleti I fancy Aguero. This could well be his last home game and Hercules will be despondent following their confirmed relegation. I quite like the idea of Koke as well. Possibly Diego Costa on the cheap.

Sevilla, while heavy favourites could be upset by a Sociedad side in a bit of form and in need of points. With Negredo's price ballooning following his scoring run, there's no great value to be had with the southern side. Maybe Capel, possibly Romaric at a stretch.

Outside of the heavy favourites, i'll be staying away from Villarreal v Real Madrid as both teams have little to play for. I like the look of Almeria at home to Mallorca following their excellent 0-0 with Villarreal. GK Esteban and striker Piatti are worth a punt. Getafe need a result more than Osasuna and I expect a win with Parejo heavily involved.

My temptations:

GK
Leo Franco, RZG, 4
Esteben, Alm, 9
Iraizoz, Bil, 6

Defs
F. Amorebieta, Bil 1.00
X. Castillo, Bil, 1.3

Mids
Affellay, Bar, 1.9
Keita, Bar, 4.8
Parejo, Getaffe, 10
Castro, Spo, 5.9
Banega, Val, 7.9
Reyes, A.Mad, 15
De Las Cuevas, Gjon, 10.4
Boutahar, RZG, 5.8
Acosta, Sev, 1.9
Capel, Sev, 7.9

Att
Kanoute, Sev, 10
Piatti, Alm, 13
Muniain, Bil, 10
Soldado, Val, 19
Jonas, Val, 13
Getafe, Miku, 9
Aguero, A.Mad,25
Villa, Bar, 20
Messi, Bar, 36

Team of the week - midweek games:

Ronaldo, R.Madrid, 35.5
Negredo, Sevilla, 22.5
Kike Sola, 21.5

Sendoa, Hercules, 21.5
Kennedy, Racing, 18
Eliseu, Malaga, 17.5
Gabi, 16

Galan, Espanyol, 14
Luna, Almeria, 13.5
Marcelo, Real Madrid, 11.5

Esteban, Almeria, 15

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

La Liga Team of the Week 33

La Liga's star team of the weekend 33 from Yahoo Fantasy Football.

3-4-3 formation

Forwards
Higuain (Real) 35
Spearheading Real's reserve side, bags a hattrick in 6-3 defeat of Valencia.

Aguero (Atleti) 22.5
Brace in 4-1 defeat over Levante makes it 8 goals in 6 for Atleti wunderkid.

Jonas (Val) 19.5
Valencia's Brazilian forward got a goal, an assist and 3 SOTs in just 31 minutes of play.

Mids
Kaka (Real) 29.5
2 goals, 2 assists: emphatic display

Elias (Atleti) 18
Another Brazilian, priced just 4.38!, filled his boots with superb free kick goal.

Tiago Gomes (Hercules) 16.5
Portugease, scored his first of the season, and a match winning goal to boot.

Cazorla (Villarreal) 15.5
His 4th highest score of the year, dominant display from the wing wizard without scoring a goal.

Defs
Nunes (Mallorca) 25
1st goal of season for Mallorca in islanders 2-0 defeat of Getafe

Jose Angel (Sporting Gijon) 14.5
Jose with another excellent display as Gijon scored another tight 1-0 win, this time over Espanyol.

A.Paz (Hercules) 12.5
Paz helps Hercules secure vital win but his side still lie 19th.

V.Valdes (Barca) 20
Keeper had to be at his best, making 5 saves to keep Osasuna at bay.

 Total = 228.5



Spiegelhalter had a better time of it this week with 8 correct results and 5 perfect scores. Coo. (Actual results in bold if different.)

Valencia CF 0 - 1 Real Madrid (3-6)
FC Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna
Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad
Racing Santander 2-1 Málaga CF (1-2)
RCD Mallorca 1-0 Getafe CF (2-0)
Sporting Gijón 1-0 RCD Espanyol
Hércules CF 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña
Atlético Madrid 1-0 Levante UD (4-1)
Sevilla FC 1-1 Villarreal CF (3-2)
Real Zaragoza 1-0 UD Almería

Team of the Week 32

Griezmann strikes again

A. Griezmann, RSO, 28.00
P. Osvaldo, Espanyol, 23.00
Rubén Suárez, LEV, 20.50

Duda, Malaga, 20
Miguel de las Cuevas, Sporting, 15.50
Juanlu, LEV, 12.00

M. Stankevicius, Valencia, 18.00
M. Pablo, Deportivo, 13.50
M. Demichelis, Malaga, 13.5
J. Mathieu, Valencia, 13.00

D. Aranzubía, Deportivo, 20.00

For the record, this was the team of week 32. This is the best team you could have had. With a 4-3-3 you could have got yourself 197 points. And not a Barca or Real player in sight.

I've been putting it off to wait for the Villarreal v Zaragoza results but it seems they will never show. Nice to see so many unusal players grabbing the headlines and some old stalwarts like Osvaldo hitting the heights once again. Duda does not cease to impress.

The distribution of points for the first 11 was thus:

Deportivo 33.5 17.0%
Espanyol 23 11.7%
LEV 32.5 16.5%
Malaga 33.5 17.0%
RSO 28 14.2%
Sporting 15.5 7.9%
Valencia 31 15.7%

Antoine Griezmann: Real Sociedad's French star of the future

Griezmann Wagon Wheel: Click to Enlarge

In a weekend when the El Clasico bigshots squeezed out pitiful fantasy point, the door was left open for some of the league's lesser known stars to shine. And French starlet Antoine Griezmann siezed the day and registered the stand-out performance from Jornada 32. The 20 year old French forward scored twice for Real Sociedad in their vital 2-1 win over Sporting Gijon and top scored the round (pending delayed results from Villarreal 1-0 Zaragoza) with 28pts. This superb display deserves closer attention.



Griezmann's triumphant week caps a stellar season for the forward who has been one of the league' most consistent performers. He has 225 pts, averages 7.26 and is ranked 19th overall in the top scorers list (just ahead of Soldado (Valencia), Nilmar (Villarreal) and Ozil (Real)). His brace took his goals tally to 7 for the season but this is a forward whose efficacy is in his all round play in the final third. While he has just 1 assist, he has also registered 20 shots on target, delivered 64 Successful crosses, won 32 Corners and drawn 37 Fouls. It all adds up.

His 28 pts was his highest weekly total this season and was a welcome reprieve for Sociedad who have been struggling for goals and slipping dangerously close to the relegation zone. With Raul Tamudo seemingly having forgotten how to be a centre forward and main man Javier Llorente missing since Week 20, Griezmann has stepped up to the plate in his side's hour of need.

Real Sociedad may not be the first club people associate with nurturing the young stars of the future but in Griezmann and Xabi Prieto, the blue Basques have produced two of the outstanding young players of this Liga season and will struggle to hold onto the young bucks for 2011/12.

U-19 Champion

• Griezmann also lined up for the French u-19 side that beat their Spanish counterparts in the European Championships in July 2010. However, the wing-wonder didn't quite have the impact he would have hoped for according to Goal.com's ratings

• Total Football Madness have provided a useful write up on the french man. According to them, Griezmann is "the next big thing to come out of France"

• I enjoyed this fab clip where Griezmann invites his teammates to invade a car after scoring against Deportivo:

3 Argentines and a Portugeaser

Tired of waiting for my scores from Monday night's La Liga fixture to come through, I got distracted and started wondering how Liga players compare to EPL players. I made a graph. It started out being a comparison between the Argentinian forwards Tevez, Messi and Aguero, but I arbritrarily felt a need to add another EPL player for balance - so I added Nani. It felt right. The only surprise is that Messi doesn't win absolutely all catgories.

Graph shows goals, assists, shots, corners won, fouls won and overall yahoo fantasy football stats for Aguero, Tevez, Messi and Nani (as of 19th April 2011)



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Real Madrid 1 - 1 Barcelona: clasico stat review

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Barcelona players against Real Madrid players. By all accounts it sounded like Real Madrid were largely on the backfoot fighting to contain the irresistable Catalans. But in Fantasy Football terms, the Madristas were more successful. Overall, Mourinho's men scored 45 pts compared to Barca's 30. Both teams endured some heavy negatives with Raul "the liability" Albiol conceding a hefty -11.5 and the usually prolific Alves registering -7.5. Messi and Ronaldo were the inevitable goal scorers but both were largely supressed by the respective defences. Puyol, Pedro and Maxwell scored 0 for Barca, only Xavi Alonso got a 0 for Real. The average Barcelona player score was 1.07. For Real, it was 3.2.

Predicting results

A Brilliant piece of predicting football results from David Spiegelhalter's blog


http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/763