Saturday, 14 May 2011

Liga weekend predictions: Sunday May 15th

The predictor shows heavily favoured wins for Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bilbao, Valencia and Sevilla. The only one I'm dubious about is Bilbao who are up against in form Malaga. I know the Basque side have one of the best home records in the league but Malaga have the best form playing anywhere in the league at the moment.

Either way, it would be prudent to pick up Bilbao's bargain GK Iraizoz at 6. The only other temptation for me might be Muniain. Malaga, I don't fancy any Malaga guys. The form men, Duda and Baptista too expensive.

Barcelona will be in a party mood and it could be a question of how many at home to Depor. I'm tempted to go with Messi even though he has really slowed down in scoring. I have a feeling his teammates will be helping him score as many as poss to catch Ronaldo. Elsewhere I'm hanging on to Keita and Affellay who are still great bargains.

Valencia and A.Mad should both cruise to home wins. Valencia will want to secure that 3rd place. Soldado, Jonas and Banega tempt. For Atleti I fancy Aguero. This could well be his last home game and Hercules will be despondent following their confirmed relegation. I quite like the idea of Koke as well. Possibly Diego Costa on the cheap.

Sevilla, while heavy favourites could be upset by a Sociedad side in a bit of form and in need of points. With Negredo's price ballooning following his scoring run, there's no great value to be had with the southern side. Maybe Capel, possibly Romaric at a stretch.

Outside of the heavy favourites, i'll be staying away from Villarreal v Real Madrid as both teams have little to play for. I like the look of Almeria at home to Mallorca following their excellent 0-0 with Villarreal. GK Esteban and striker Piatti are worth a punt. Getafe need a result more than Osasuna and I expect a win with Parejo heavily involved.

My temptations:

Leo Franco, RZG, 4
Esteben, Alm, 9
Iraizoz, Bil, 6

F. Amorebieta, Bil 1.00
X. Castillo, Bil, 1.3

Affellay, Bar, 1.9
Keita, Bar, 4.8
Parejo, Getaffe, 10
Castro, Spo, 5.9
Banega, Val, 7.9
Reyes, A.Mad, 15
De Las Cuevas, Gjon, 10.4
Boutahar, RZG, 5.8
Acosta, Sev, 1.9
Capel, Sev, 7.9

Kanoute, Sev, 10
Piatti, Alm, 13
Muniain, Bil, 10
Soldado, Val, 19
Jonas, Val, 13
Getafe, Miku, 9
Aguero, A.Mad,25
Villa, Bar, 20
Messi, Bar, 36

Team of the week - midweek games:

Ronaldo, R.Madrid, 35.5
Negredo, Sevilla, 22.5
Kike Sola, 21.5

Sendoa, Hercules, 21.5
Kennedy, Racing, 18
Eliseu, Malaga, 17.5
Gabi, 16

Galan, Espanyol, 14
Luna, Almeria, 13.5
Marcelo, Real Madrid, 11.5

Esteban, Almeria, 15


  1. Question: Do you ever find yourself shaping individual player picks around your analyses and predictions, or do you pick a team first and then fine-tune after examining the stats? I find that I take a logic-first, data-heavy approach, followed by my gut shots, even though I've met with more success using my method for YFF EPL.

    For greedy purposes, I'm crossing my fingers that Messi does well this weekend. Not only is he on my team, but I advised others to give him a look, and it always looks bad when a supposed guru makes the wrong call.


  2. Thanks for improving my position with my friends. It might be selfish for not telling my friends about your blog but it's a secret weapon that has really helped me out.

  3. @Data Head. I like to have the spiegelhalter predictions done first before I start picking a side although I am already considering the most obvious choices. I had Ageuro and Messi this week and I am gutted

    @JeanClaude. Great to hear from you! I'm glad this is helping someone. It doesn't seem to help me that much as I still keep making really bad selections! I've had a shocker this weekend!

  4. Johnson, I also had Messi, with Piqué and Soldado to boot. That produced 0.00 points at a cost exceeding 60.00. But my value picks really came through, and I made it out with 78.50 points. (The other Leo (Ponzio) that I drew attention to a month or two ago led the way.)

    As for using team predictions to inform player picks, YFF is tricky in that you could get the team right and everything and still miss the player with 20.00 points. Next time!