Liga weekend predictions: Sunday May 15th

The predictor shows heavily favoured wins for Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bilbao, Valencia and Sevilla. The only one I'm dubious about is Bilbao who are up against in form Malaga. I know the Basque side have one of the best home records in the league but Malaga have the best form playing anywhere in the league at the moment.

Either way, it would be prudent to pick up Bilbao's bargain GK Iraizoz at 6. The only other temptation for me might be Muniain. Malaga, I don't fancy any Malaga guys. The form men, Duda and Baptista too expensive.

Barcelona will be in a party mood and it could be a question of how many at home to Depor. I'm tempted to go with Messi even though he has really slowed down in scoring. I have a feeling his teammates will be helping him score as many as poss to catch Ronaldo. Elsewhere I'm hanging on to Keita and Affellay who are still great bargains.

Valencia and A.Mad should both cruise to home wins. Valencia will want to secure that 3rd place. Soldado, Jonas and Banega tempt. For Atleti I fancy Aguero. This could well be his last home game and Hercules will be despondent following their confirmed relegation. I quite like the idea of Koke as well. Possibly Diego Costa on the cheap.

Sevilla, while heavy favourites could be upset by a Sociedad side in a bit of form and in need of points. With Negredo's price ballooning following his scoring run, there's no great value to be had with the southern side. Maybe Capel, possibly Romaric at a stretch.

Outside of the heavy favourites, i'll be staying away from Villarreal v Real Madrid as both teams have little to play for. I like the look of Almeria at home to Mallorca following their excellent 0-0 with Villarreal. GK Esteban and striker Piatti are worth a punt. Getafe need a result more than Osasuna and I expect a win with Parejo heavily involved.

My temptations:

GK
Leo Franco, RZG, 4
Esteben, Alm, 9
Iraizoz, Bil, 6

Defs
F. Amorebieta, Bil 1.00
X. Castillo, Bil, 1.3

Mids
Affellay, Bar, 1.9
Keita, Bar, 4.8
Parejo, Getaffe, 10
Castro, Spo, 5.9
Banega, Val, 7.9
Reyes, A.Mad, 15
De Las Cuevas, Gjon, 10.4
Boutahar, RZG, 5.8
Acosta, Sev, 1.9
Capel, Sev, 7.9

Att
Kanoute, Sev, 10
Piatti, Alm, 13
Muniain, Bil, 10
Soldado, Val, 19
Jonas, Val, 13
Getafe, Miku, 9
Aguero, A.Mad,25
Villa, Bar, 20
Messi, Bar, 36

Team of the week - midweek games:

Ronaldo, R.Madrid, 35.5
Negredo, Sevilla, 22.5
Kike Sola, 21.5

Sendoa, Hercules, 21.5
Kennedy, Racing, 18
Eliseu, Malaga, 17.5
Gabi, 16

Galan, Espanyol, 14
Luna, Almeria, 13.5
Marcelo, Real Madrid, 11.5

Esteban, Almeria, 15

Guadiola's team selection: a headache for fantasy pickers

Pep Guardiola seems to like taking the rise with fantasy football managers. Barcelona, as you might expect, are the highest scoring team in Yahoo Fantasy football: over the season, the accumluated score of their squad makes 2928pts. Their closest rivals are natually Real Madrid with 2754.5 pts. One would imagine that shoehorning as many Barca players into your line-up would be a sensible tactic for any fantasy manager, but alas, the champions elect keep upsetting me. David Villa has 2 goals in 10 games, Xavi hardly ever breaks 10 pts, Messi's value is always 40+, and with the recent fixture congestion, its almost impossible to predict the damn lineup as Pep rotates his boys to ensure freshness.

With an 5 pt lead and a game in hand, (with 3 to play) before Sunday night's fixture against Espanyol, Barca had to all intents and purposes won La Liga. One might expect that going into last nights home derby, Pep might have given a rest to the stars that secured passage to the Champions League final on Tuesday. You'd be given further reason for believing this given that throughout April, the team was heavily rotated with the likes of Jeffren, Pinto, Milito, Keita, Thiago, Affellay, and Fontas featuring frequently in the Liga matches. Even more weight is thrown behind this theory when you consider that Espanyol are on a horrible run of form and never beat Barcelona. So surely, these fringe names would feature in the gimme home game on Sunday?

But no, apart from perhaps the inclusion of Fontas and the absence of Puyol, he goes and names 9 of his strongest line-up; that which we will surely see against Man Utd. You might say to me, Pep could not risk increasing the pressure on himself and his team with another blip after last week's shock loss to Sociedad. you might say, he needs to play his strongest 11 to keep them sharp for the CL final.

Having picked Pinto, Affellay and Jeffren for my side this weekend, I prefer to think he has it in for fantasy football managers. Maybe it has something to do with Jose Mourinho's professed enjoyment of the Fantasy Football game, maybe Pep doesn't have time for such frivolity, but for my money, he's clearly out to undermine my fantasy football selections. Only Affellay got any game time. He got me 1 point.

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

Week23: Gijon break Barca's record

Sporting Gijon 1-1 Barcelona
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Sporting Gijon 1 - 1 Barcelona

Last night, Gijon did the unthinkable and had the audacity to not lose to Barcelona. The game, which included two exquisite goals, ended Barca's 16 game winning streak. Forzafutbal have a great follow up piece telling us that we should not be all that surprised as Gijon have a wonderful ability to stick such spanners in the works. Of course, before their 3-0 defeat at Bilbao last week, they had previously thrashed Mallorca 4-0 in their own back yard and gave Atletico a surprise defeat courtesy of David Barral (see week 20). It was Barral again who gave Gijon the lead in this game, only for Villa to restore parity 10 minutes before time.

The fantasy stats from the game suggest Gijon truly snuffed out the Barca threat with the champions barely mustering a shot on target. It is a rare occasion where no Barcelona player scores more than 15 pts and a  few negative Fantasy Points records were broken for Barca:

Dropping Pedro a big mistake

• Victor Valdes (-5.5) and Pedro (eulogised by Sid Lowe this weekend) (-1.5) scored negative points for the first time of the season. 

It was the first time since week 15 that Pedro didn't manage a shot on target. Pedro started the game on the bench in the place of new signing Ibrahim Affellay. The dutch winger posted a negative return of -3. Pedro replaced Affellay at half time, but didn't manage any better. Dani Alves also scored a dismal 2.5, his worst score of the season.

All in all, the stats suggest Gijon did something tactically excellent in nullifying Barca's wing attack: something Arsenal will need to look at if they have any hope of overcoming Barca in their upcoming Champions League meetings.

• Messi scored 13 points. His lowest total in a game he's started since week 13.

• Also, despite scoring a goal, David Villa only got 10.5 points, on a return for a player worth 25. He's only scored more than 15 pts once since week 16.