La Liga Week 33 Preview

This is the beginning of a massive two weeks for Spain’s giants. With Real Madrid and Barcelona separated by just four points and next week’s El Clasico sandwiched between two legs of Champions League semi-finals this will be a real test of nerve for both sides. At the other end of the table, with six games to go, it looks increasingly like the final three have been decided with a seven point gap now opened up between the bottom three and 17th placed Villarreal.

Real Madrid host doomed Sporting Gijon on Saturday. Sporting are marooned in 19th but gave themselves hope with an impressive 3-2 win over Levante on Wednesday night. They will still need a miracle to escape the drop now though and Javier Clemente’s side won’t have much of a prayer at the Bernabeu with the form Real have been in. Jose Mourinho’s side registered another emphatic victory in midweek as they crushed their local rivals Atletico 4-1 thanks to a hat-trick from Cristiano Ronaldo. Los Merengues are just three goals away from scoring 107 for the season and breaking the record number of goals for a Liga season set by John Toshack’s Real in 1989-90. Ronaldo also set his own record by becoming the only player in Europe’s top four divisions to score 40 goals in successive seasons. With the midweek Champions’ League semi-final first leg against Bayern Munich coming up Mourinho will be tempted to rotate his side. Ozil, Marcelo and Higuain were all rested against Atletico and could be brought back in against Gijon.

Barcelona just need to keep on winning. They visit a Levante side sat in fifth and still very much in the hunt for a place in next seasons’ Champions League. On Wednesday, Pep Guardiola’s side cruised to a 4-0 victory over Getafe to make it ten wins in a row and are in fine fettle ahead of El Clasico. Levante caused a shock early in the season as they beat Real with a solitary Aruna Kone goal but they are 14/1 to repeat the feat against Barca. The Champions have no new injury worries and they received a boost this week as David Villa announced that he would be back in contention before the end of the season.

Unai Emery gave himself a reprieve as Valencia crushed Rayo Vallecano 4-1 in midweek to give themselves a two point cushion in third place above Malaga. The Turkish manager has come under criticism from Los Ches fans as his side’s form has dipped with Malaga and Levante threatening to steal automatic qualification to the Champions’ League. Valencia visit Espanyol on Sunday and need to keep up their momentum to keep the chasing pack at bay. The Catalunians’ hopes of qualifying for European football next season have taken a hit in recent weeks as they are winless in five. Valencia have also won four of the last five meetings between the two sides.

Malaga will be looking to get back to winning ways against Real Sociedad. Malaaga’s charge into the top four has been laboured and they would be third had it not been for recent upsets against relegation threatened Betis and Villarreal. The odds favour the home side and the likes of Cazorla, Rondon and Isco should feast on a leaky Sociedad defence. Malaga will be without keeper Idris Kameni who was sent off at Villarreal in midweek.

Team of the week 14 - Levante and Getafe boys rule the roost

Team of the week (not including Malaga v Villarreal)

3-4-3: Moya (GET); Valera (GET), Lopez (GRN), Delo Horno (LEV), Lamah (OSA), Di Maria (RMA), Barkero (LEV), Juanlu (LEV), Kone (LEV), Aggiretxe (RSO), Pereira (BET).

GK


Moya

Moya, 24 pts, Getafe

7 saves and 1 clean sheet helping Getafe secure shock result of weekend.

Defence

Juan Valera

Juan Valera, 21 pts, GET, (value 7.85)

Match winning goal, clean sheet and five passes intercepted.

Iñigo López, 19 pts, Granada (7.12)

A match winner and a clean sheet in one of the shock results of the weekend.

Del Horno, 12 pts, LEV (value 6.12)

A clean sheet, 3 tackles won and four passes intercepted in crucial home win for Levante.



Midfield


Roland Lamah

 Roland Lamah, 18 pts, OSA (value, 8.49)

1 goal and 1 assist for this weekend's top scoring mid, guiding Osasuna to an unexpected 2-1 win at Espanyol.

Di Maria

Angel Di Maria, 16.5 pts, MAD (value 20.32)

A match winning goal and 6 fouls earnt for the Argentinian on his return from injury.



Barkero

 
Barkero, 14 pts, LEV (value 8.75)

A match winning goal and 4 corners won. Instrumental in the 4-0 drubbing of Gijon.

Juanlu

Juanlu, 12 pts, LEV (value 12.86)

Ever dependable midfield maestro gets his 6th of the season.








Forwards

Kone

Aruna Kone, 27.5 pts, Lev - 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 SOTs


Aggirexte

 Imanol Agirretxe, 22.5, RSO, (value 7.8)

A goal, an assist and 3 SOTs as Sociedad upset Betis in Sevilla.



Jonathon Perreira, 22 pts, BET (value 6.95) - 2 goals in the same game

Wednesday night football: Levante, Real good

Real Madrid 3-0 Villarreal
Benzema (19 pts), Kaka (8.5 pts), Di Maria (19.5 pts)

Real cruised to an expected victory at home to Villarreal. Higuain rested, Ronaldo scoring 4.5 and Kaka getting 8.5 even while scoring a goal would have left many FF managers frustrated. Villarreal need a result soon. Ozil's stock continues to fall.

Predicted score: 6-0 Real
Levante 3-2 Real Sociedad

Nano (12 pts), Valdo (11.5 pts), Suarez Ruben (10pts) - Daniel Estrada (12 pts), Martinez (11 pts)

Suarez Ruben blasted home an injury time free kick winner to ensure Levante maintained their vice-like grip on the top of La Liga. Struggling Sociedad had given the Andalucians a scare with goals from Estrada and Martinez but the leaders squeezed out the victory.

Juan Ignacio Martínez's charges continue to stun the football world while leaving FF managers non-plussed with the paucity of FF points. This time, even regular hero Munua in goal could only stump up 1 pt.



Sociedad's surprise performance lead to a few noteworthy performances. Daniel Estrada is excellent value in midfield, scoring his 12 from a value of 5.6, and Inigo Martinez - when he's not getting sent off or booked - proved again he is an excellent source of goals when he wants to be. One to watch would be Arsenal loanee Carlos Vela. The tiny mexican got 10.5 by making himself busy with sots, crosses and cws

The predictions were correct in so far as Levante were 85% on to to win the game, and most likely to score 2 goals. Sociedad's 2 away goals were a big upset to the odds though, being predicted aat 81% to score 0.

Predicted score: Levante 2-0


Real Zaragoza 0-1 Valencia
Alba (82)

Wide man Alba keeps Valencia's hand in the hunting pack at the top of the table. Not much else to talk about from this game apart from defender Bruno's 11pts. Parejo got some more minutes.

Predicted score: Valencia 1-0

Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Malaga
Bothelo (21 pts), Tamudo (17.5 pts)

Botelho with a crushing performance, scoring 21 pts from defence and a value of 3.6. All Rayo's strikers got 10+ suggesting they gave Malaga a real going over. What has happened to Pellegrini's chaps?

Predicted score: 1-1
Getafe 2-2 Osasuna
Guiza (2 goals, 21 pts) - Ibrahima Balde (2 goals, 20.5 pts)


Guiza

Two braces from two strikers scoring for the first time this season meant a deadlock at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Getafe's ex-Spain international, Guiza, broke his duck to score for the first time in nine games. Ibrahima's double reply was his first score in six.

Guiza's strikes, from a value of just 7, gave him a healthy 21pts taking him to 38.5 for the season. From a value of just 8.04, Ibrahima built on a solid 12.5 performance at the weekend to score 20.5, taking him to 30.5.

The only other performance of note from this game was another excellent display from midfielder Raul Garcia who scored 12.5 with 2 assists and various sundries from a value of 9.7.

The surprise strikes upset the predictions which had given Getafe a 52% chance of a win. A draw came in at 29%. Getafe were expected to win by 1-0; if not, 2-0. A 2-2 draw was the 8th most likely result

Predicted score: 1-0
Mallorca 1-2 Sporting Gijon
Castro (23 pts) - Bilic (9 pts), Joao Victor (og -2.5 pts)

Castro with an imperious 23 pts but nothing else for the islanders to be proud of. No player from Gijon scored 10+ despite the win. GK Juan Pablo was their top scorer with 9.5.

Betis slip. Barca grind. Levante march on. Week 7 review

Barca have reclaimed their spot at the top of the pile snatching the lead away from the precocious Real Betis scraping 1-0 win at Gijon, thanks to a goal from full back Adriano. The fixture was generally a pain for fantasy pickers as returns from the champions were slim. Only Valdes, Messi and Adriano broke 10 points. Bargain bin Fabregas also broke down and will be out for the next 3 weeks. 2 of those will be internationals, leaving managers fretting over whether to stick or twist on his return to domestic action. Barca will surely dish out a multi-goal meat beating at home to Racing in week 8.

Juanlu mobbed by his mates (France24.com)

Real Betis went down at home 1-0 in the top of the table clash with Levante. Yes, Levante, who are now joint top, have picked up where they left off last season and are motoring along. Even though they have lost last season's top scorer, Caicedo, they continue to go from strength to strength. Munua contines to be one of the best keepers in the league, and midfielder Juanlu made it into the team of the week with his match winning goal. Defence is tight under the super Ballesteros and returning ex-Chelsea man Del Horno. Bargain striker Aruna Kone has to be a tempting pick against high fliers Malaga when the season resumes after the break.

Bargain man Alvarez (fourfourtwo)

Real Madrid, Malaga and Valencia are now all tied in third after victories. Real heaped misery on the many managers who have Espanyols 1million gk Alvarez with a hattrick from Higuain - if only we knew he was going to start. Will Madrid continue to deliver the beatings when Betis come to town next?

Malaga laboured to their 3-2 win over Getafe. Getafe always seem to score. Van Nistelrooy finally got his first goal (hooray for my team) but the Beast Baptista stole his thunder with a 19.5 point mwg performance. Could be a watershed moment for the AMC. Sadly, the uncanny conceding of 2 goals left many disappointed fantasy managers as Mathijsen and Demichelis had been solid so far this season.

Canales Mobbed

Valencia slithered to a 1-0 victory against struggling Granada thanks to the hotly tipped bargain that is the marvellous Canales - the only player who seemed to benefit from playing two games this week. Guaita - perhaps motivated by Diego Alves' midweek heroics - reminded everyone that he is also an awesome keeper by being the top scoring stopper of the week with 20 pts, making 5 saves. Hedwigs Maduro made a noteworthy 10.

Atletico Madrid and Sevilla cancelled each other out in a tedious 0-0 draw which didn't benefit anyone. Reyes gave a characteristically solid 9.5, while Turan continued his solid form with a 6. Diego remains tantalisingly cheap at 4.42.

Real Sociedad stumbled in the Basque derby, and Fernando Llorente capitalised with a heroic match winning brace to give Bilbao their first win of the season, and book himself a place in the team of the week.

The other Cejudo

Mid table maniacs Real Mallorca and Osasuna battled it out for an exciting 2-2 draw. Osasuna dominated, with the prodigal son Raul Garcia scoring his second in two games and the mecurial Cejudo notching his first of the season. Cejudo continues to fascinated and delight. He has 12 successful crosses, 11 tackles won and 5 shots on target already this year. He is everywhere. No Mallorcans scored over 7.5 which is odd considering they got 2 goals.

Villarreal continue to wade through treacle, flopping to a 2-2 draw at home to Zaragoza. Rossi managed a manly 20 pt performance which will be some solace to fantasy managers. De Guzman got an encouraging 10 from midfield without doing anything. And, who is Hernan Perez? A Paraguayan midfield maestro who scored with his first performance of the season on his debut. Most of the yellow lads did alright.

Santander and Vallecano delivered the most forgettable result of the week with a 1-1 draw. It is worth noting that Rayo's Michu again did well with 11.5 points without a goal and Tamudo was again amongst the goals.

Team of the week 7

Higuain. 33.5 (espanyol 0-4 REAL MADRID)
Llorente. 27 (real sociedad 1-2 ATLETICO BILBAO)
Rossi. 20 (VILLARREAL v real zaragoza)

Raul Garcia. 25. (OSASUNA v mallorca)
Canales. 22.5 (VALENCIA v granada)
Juanlu. 15 (betis v LEVANTE)
Cejudo. 14.5 (OSASUNA v mallorca)

Adriano. 21.5 (gijon 0-1 BARCA)
Inigo Martinez. 15. (REAL SOCIEDAD 1-2 bilbao)
Arbeloa. 11.5. (espanyol v REAL MADRID)

Guaita. 20 (VALENCIA v granada)

La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

Team of the Week 32

Griezmann strikes again

A. Griezmann, RSO, 28.00
P. Osvaldo, Espanyol, 23.00
Rubén Suárez, LEV, 20.50

Duda, Malaga, 20
Miguel de las Cuevas, Sporting, 15.50
Juanlu, LEV, 12.00

M. Stankevicius, Valencia, 18.00
M. Pablo, Deportivo, 13.50
M. Demichelis, Malaga, 13.5
J. Mathieu, Valencia, 13.00

D. Aranzubía, Deportivo, 20.00

For the record, this was the team of week 32. This is the best team you could have had. With a 4-3-3 you could have got yourself 197 points. And not a Barca or Real player in sight.

I've been putting it off to wait for the Villarreal v Zaragoza results but it seems they will never show. Nice to see so many unusal players grabbing the headlines and some old stalwarts like Osvaldo hitting the heights once again. Duda does not cease to impress.

The distribution of points for the first 11 was thus:

Deportivo 33.5 17.0%
Espanyol 23 11.7%
LEV 32.5 16.5%
Malaga 33.5 17.0%
RSO 28 14.2%
Sporting 15.5 7.9%
Valencia 31 15.7%

Real Madrid 2 - 0 Levante: goal for Carvalho

No surprises. Real beat these chaps 8-0 last time they met in the league. The only surprise about this result was that Ronaldo failed to score and Benzema and Carvalho did. Despite his slip up for the 2nd goal, Munua had an excellent game for Levante, making 9 saves and scoring 10 pts (only 2 less than Adan in goal for Real).

The performances of centre backs Carvalho and Albiol provided a suprise in fantasy terms. These two have been surprisingly low value all season: consuming far too many fouls and yellow cards.

This week, Carvalho returned over 3 times his value and Albiol nearly 6!