The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.
In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.
The current La Liga standings:
Key:
League position cannot change
Nothing but pride to play for
Could be relegated
Europa Cup
So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!
Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:
Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF
Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?
Levante 1-0 Zaragoza
The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.
Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi
Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe
A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.
Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.
Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal
This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.
Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders
Deportivo 0-1 Valencia
This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.
Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.
Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.
Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.
Pick: AB - Muniain
Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.
Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:
Picking as many as you can from Real represents the biggest temptation this weekend - their match features the biggest disparity between two rivals with Los Blancos at home to struggling Hercules. With injuries still lurking for Ronaldo and Higuain, it makes Fantasy selection a lot more straight forward.
Benzema has been in fine form since the arrival of Adebayor and Mourinho started the two together against Santander. With Kaka perplexingly out of favour, there's every reason to expect the front four of Ozil, Di Maria, Benzema and Ade will start and amass a wanton load between them. If money allows, it would be prudent to squeeze in fullback Marcelo - sensational in the 7-0 drubbing handed to Malaga at home a fortnight ago.
On paper, Villarreal v Sporting Gijon should be a reliable source of points for the home side. However, since Sporting love an upset and Villarreal have been in such stumbling form, it could easily be a damp squib. Nilmar at 18 and Rossi at 23 feel off-puttingly overpriced. Cazorla at 16 feels plausible, while Cani has dropped to 9 and in goal Diego Lopez has dropped nicely in price to 12.
Levante v Mallorca should be an exciting game for goals. Levante have been in fine fettle, especially at home, and it feels like Caicedo always scores at home. It is tempting to go for the Ecuadorian (14) and AN other. Perhaps the mysterious goal scoring wing-wizard Valdo - in midfield at just 8. Maybe Juanlu - highest scoring midfielder for LEV with 125 enjoys an SOT and an SC.
The rest of the ties feel murky and unpleasent. A standard routine win for the increasingly unlikeable Barca at the expense of Seville (missing Luis Fabiano for 6 weeks now). Almeria could upset the easily upsettable Atletico Madrid. Interesting to see what Piatti can do in this one for Almeria. Valencia look increasingly good and will surely triumph at Zaragoza. Never know where points are coming from with Los Che though. Not tempting enough to invest in this week.
Espanyol will surely get back to winning ways at home to the obdurate Deportivo. Looks like a good time to bring in Kameni in goal. Priced just 11. Also Galan is a perpetuallygood value defender at 1.
Sociedad will surely triumph over stinky Malaga. The only certainty is that Sociedad will score. Xavi Prieto is a temptation at 13. Agirretxe is the only fit striker and should start in place of injured Tamudo. Bravo in goal at 8.24 looks excellent value. Griezmann takes corners and scores goals. Valued 12.5. Expect Osasuna and Racing to be tight with a clean sheet for Ricardo. Getafe v Bilbao feels dreary.
Sat, Mar 12 ALM versus AMR Sat, Mar 12 RZG versus VAL Sat, Mar 12 MAD versus HER Sun, Mar 13 SEV versus BAR Sun, Mar 13 VIL versus SPO Sun, Mar 13 LEV versus MAL Sun, Mar 13 ESP versus DEP Sun, Mar 13 RSO versus MGA Sun, Mar 13 OSA versus RAC Mon, Mar 14 GET versus BIL
Messi was the man of the week, while two of those young talents who live in the star's shadow - Aguero and Benzema - ran him close. Elsewhere, Osasuna, Seville and Real dominated the XI and mystery man Pinillos of Racing Santander made an appearance, as this week's second most deadly defender.
Messi wins the week thanks to his late goal in Barca's 2-1 win over a resolute Atletico Bilbao. Hot on his heels was the heir apparent Sergio "Kun" Aguero, who also grabbed valuable Match Winning Goal bonus points as Atletico Madrid ended their four match losing streak with a 1-0 win at Zaragoza. Real Madrid and Osasuna both had 3 in the week winning 11: Benzema and Carvalho the unlikely goal heros, and Di Maria having a stormer to score 14.5 pts with shots, crosses and an assist as Real eased passed Levante at the Bernabeau.
Osasuna's trio capitalised as they crushed Espanyol 4-0 in the shock result of the weekend. All Osasuna's goals came directly or indirectly from crosses from the right wing. It may be worth keeping an eye on corner taker Masoud Shojaei who earnt a respectable 9 pts from his contributions from the wing this week.
Varas, who I was adamant would start last week, came in for the injured Palopthis week and did the business as Seville got back to winning ways against Hercules through new signing Nekounam.
TEAM OF THE WEEK: 24 player, team, position, wk24 value, wk 24 pts
L. Messi.Barcelona.Forward.47.56 23.50 S. Agüero.Athl Madrid.Forward.23.77 22.50 K. Benzema.Real Mad.Forward.18.03. 20.00
I. Rakitic, Sevilla, Midfielder,7.41, 17.00 J. Nekounam, Osasuna, Midfielder, 10.31, 17.00 Di María, Real Mad, Midfielder, 14.61 14.50 F. Soriano, Osasuna, Midfielder, 7.75, 13.50
R. Carvalho, Real Mad, Defender, 8.49, 17.00 P. Pinillos, Racing, Defender, 8.73, 13.50 N. Monreal, Osasuna, Defender, 11.49, 12.00
Pablo Pinillos did the business for Racing Santander with a last gasp penalty as Kennedy Bakircioglu's side snatched an invaluable 1-0 win at Getafe. The defender had a stormer with the cyphering a clean sheet, penalty, match winning goal and a couple of tackles to boot.
The odd thing is that the guy hardly seems to play. He's either had a few injuries or been out of favour. Scored minus two weeks in a row before this. He will need to be watched over the coming weeks if he is given PK responsibilities
Special mentions: G. Munúa, LEV, Goalkeeper, 12.30, 16.50 Toño, Racing, Goalkeeper, 8.46, 14.50
Key Points:
Adan - saved the game for Real
Real Madrid have 4 in the top scoring XI
3 are defensive players, including a keeper. Espanyol gave them a good battering but they held on!
23 yr old Antonio Adan made his league debut in goal after Casillas was sent off. He made 5 saves - more than any other keeper this weekend - to help secure all three points for Mourinho's men.
Nice to see Joaquin top score in a very mediocre period for him
Amazing to see former multimillion pound man, Farinos register a mighty score for Hercules, and valued at a measly 3. This will need further investigation
My team?
I got a high scoring front 3 with Adebayor, Tamudo and Rondon but was a bit disastrous elsewhere.
Prieto was suspended, Di Maria was substituted early on, and Barca had a defensive mare.
Also Trezeguet had a great week despite my reservations
