La Liga Week 33 Preview

This is the beginning of a massive two weeks for Spain’s giants. With Real Madrid and Barcelona separated by just four points and next week’s El Clasico sandwiched between two legs of Champions League semi-finals this will be a real test of nerve for both sides. At the other end of the table, with six games to go, it looks increasingly like the final three have been decided with a seven point gap now opened up between the bottom three and 17th placed Villarreal.

Real Madrid host doomed Sporting Gijon on Saturday. Sporting are marooned in 19th but gave themselves hope with an impressive 3-2 win over Levante on Wednesday night. They will still need a miracle to escape the drop now though and Javier Clemente’s side won’t have much of a prayer at the Bernabeu with the form Real have been in. Jose Mourinho’s side registered another emphatic victory in midweek as they crushed their local rivals Atletico 4-1 thanks to a hat-trick from Cristiano Ronaldo. Los Merengues are just three goals away from scoring 107 for the season and breaking the record number of goals for a Liga season set by John Toshack’s Real in 1989-90. Ronaldo also set his own record by becoming the only player in Europe’s top four divisions to score 40 goals in successive seasons. With the midweek Champions’ League semi-final first leg against Bayern Munich coming up Mourinho will be tempted to rotate his side. Ozil, Marcelo and Higuain were all rested against Atletico and could be brought back in against Gijon.

Barcelona just need to keep on winning. They visit a Levante side sat in fifth and still very much in the hunt for a place in next seasons’ Champions League. On Wednesday, Pep Guardiola’s side cruised to a 4-0 victory over Getafe to make it ten wins in a row and are in fine fettle ahead of El Clasico. Levante caused a shock early in the season as they beat Real with a solitary Aruna Kone goal but they are 14/1 to repeat the feat against Barca. The Champions have no new injury worries and they received a boost this week as David Villa announced that he would be back in contention before the end of the season.

Unai Emery gave himself a reprieve as Valencia crushed Rayo Vallecano 4-1 in midweek to give themselves a two point cushion in third place above Malaga. The Turkish manager has come under criticism from Los Ches fans as his side’s form has dipped with Malaga and Levante threatening to steal automatic qualification to the Champions’ League. Valencia visit Espanyol on Sunday and need to keep up their momentum to keep the chasing pack at bay. The Catalunians’ hopes of qualifying for European football next season have taken a hit in recent weeks as they are winless in five. Valencia have also won four of the last five meetings between the two sides.

Malaga will be looking to get back to winning ways against Real Sociedad. Malaaga’s charge into the top four has been laboured and they would be third had it not been for recent upsets against relegation threatened Betis and Villarreal. The odds favour the home side and the likes of Cazorla, Rondon and Isco should feast on a leaky Sociedad defence. Malaga will be without keeper Idris Kameni who was sent off at Villarreal in midweek.

Team of the week 14 - Levante and Getafe boys rule the roost

Team of the week (not including Malaga v Villarreal)

3-4-3: Moya (GET); Valera (GET), Lopez (GRN), Delo Horno (LEV), Lamah (OSA), Di Maria (RMA), Barkero (LEV), Juanlu (LEV), Kone (LEV), Aggiretxe (RSO), Pereira (BET).

GK


Moya

Moya, 24 pts, Getafe

7 saves and 1 clean sheet helping Getafe secure shock result of weekend.

Defence

Juan Valera

Juan Valera, 21 pts, GET, (value 7.85)

Match winning goal, clean sheet and five passes intercepted.

Iñigo López, 19 pts, Granada (7.12)

A match winner and a clean sheet in one of the shock results of the weekend.

Del Horno, 12 pts, LEV (value 6.12)

A clean sheet, 3 tackles won and four passes intercepted in crucial home win for Levante.



Midfield


Roland Lamah

 Roland Lamah, 18 pts, OSA (value, 8.49)

1 goal and 1 assist for this weekend's top scoring mid, guiding Osasuna to an unexpected 2-1 win at Espanyol.

Di Maria

Angel Di Maria, 16.5 pts, MAD (value 20.32)

A match winning goal and 6 fouls earnt for the Argentinian on his return from injury.



Barkero

 
Barkero, 14 pts, LEV (value 8.75)

A match winning goal and 4 corners won. Instrumental in the 4-0 drubbing of Gijon.

Juanlu

Juanlu, 12 pts, LEV (value 12.86)

Ever dependable midfield maestro gets his 6th of the season.








Forwards

Kone

Aruna Kone, 27.5 pts, Lev - 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 SOTs


Aggirexte

 Imanol Agirretxe, 22.5, RSO, (value 7.8)

A goal, an assist and 3 SOTs as Sociedad upset Betis in Sevilla.



Jonathon Perreira, 22 pts, BET (value 6.95) - 2 goals in the same game

La Liga Week 8 Predictions

Obvious winners the top two. Of the rest, I like the look of Vallecano v Espanyol and fancy midfielder Michu to do well. I also expect Getafe to do one over Villarreal - or at least score a couple. The home side have been high scoring unlucky losers in recent weeks. Miku is solid up front, Pedro Leon is good value in midfield and striker Guiza is surely due a goal. Sevilla should cruise past Gijon but their forward line is unpredictable with form man Negredo injured. I like Sevilla defenders, like Coke. Although the maths says Levante Malaga will be 0-0 these sides are both unpredictably good at the moment. I like the look of Aruna Kone for Levante, a bargain striker whose already done for Real Madrid this season. Are Bilbao now going to hit a bit of form after two wins on the bounce? Muniain and Llorente should do well in this one.

From Barca, sure go for Messi and Villa. Pedro is a bargain. Pique is back. Fabregas is out, but Thiago might do something.

For Real, Benzema is injured. Not sure if Higuain will be tired. Kaka and Ozil are nice midfield options.

La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5