La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5

Week 29: Team of the week

Varas, Sevilla - Golden Man

Javi Varas was Week 29's golden player and his 28 points shows us just how good he and Sevilla's defence had to be to secure their surprise 1-0 win at Valencia. A staggering points haul from the Sevilla no. 2 who was worth just 4 a few weeks ago, and worth just 11.9 at the start of this week.

Osasuna have the most representatives in the top 11: 2 defenders and one midfielder. This reflects the dominance they exerted in their emphatic, and somewhat astonishing 4-0 win at Hercules. Los Rojillos are in a rich vein of form and with 11 points, even without a goal, no wonder defender Nacho Monreal is being targeted by the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal.

A worthy mention must go to Osasuna's Goalkeeper Ricardo who had another inspired game between the sticks and racked up an excellent 22 points with 6 saves. Man Utd, in the hunt for a replacement for Van der Sar, could do a lot worse than "doing a Wenger" and bringing back an ex-golden oldie goalie. 39 yr old Ricardo was barely given a sniff in his brief stint at United between 2002 and 2005.

Sergio Aguero and Jose Reyes once again proved that you don't have to be a winner to get a good points haul. While Atletico went down 2-1, the Kun, Aguero, continued his outrageously good form with a goal and 22 pts (4 goals in his last 3 games). No clamours for the wunderkid to move to a bigger club keep bubbling to the surface.

The Guardian's Sid Lowe suggested that Aguero played virtually by himself against Real in the derby, but Reyes' total of 15, without a goal would tells us the ex-Arsenal forward showed plenty of attacking threat even if he couldn't trouble the scorers. Whilst wearing the Arsenal shirt he once got a 30pts in a week in the EPL version of the game without scoring a goal.

Rondon (left), Malaga

Malaga stiker Jose Rondon also continued his excellent form, bagging a brace to help Manuel Pellegrino's relegation threatened side ease to a 2-0 over European hopefuls Espanyol and secure their second win on the bounce. Rondon now has 12 goals, as many as Aguero and Peppe Rossi.

Racing's Kennedy and Sociedad's Griezmann were the dominant forces for either side, scoring a goal apiece as Santander edged a 2-1 win over the Basques. Spurs' Giovanni Dos Santos sealed the win to get his second in eight Liga games for Racing.

After a quiet few weeks Jonathon De Guzman popped up to re-assert himself as Mallorca's leading points scorer with the only goal in Mallorca's 1-0 win over Zaragoza. His 15 points takes his tally to 158 for the season.

The surprise package of the week has to be Villarreal's defender Musacchio. Without scoring a goal, and from a value of just 2.79, Mussachio registered 12 points, as the Yellow Submarine capitalised on Valencia's loss to re-capture 3rd place

Personal Higlights?

Farinos

FARINOS (HERCULES)

Despite Hercules' taking a 4-0 pasting at home to Osasuna, the midfield maestro almost made the team of the week, managing 14.5 points from a value of 5.79.

Team of the week 29

How the best scoring XI would have looked:

Name,team,position,points
J. Varas SEV Goalkeeper 28.00

Nelson OSA Defender 19.50
M. Musacchio VIL Defender 12.00
N. Monreal OSA Defender 11.00

J. Camuñas OSA Midfielder 17.00
J. Reyes AMR Midfielder 15.00
K. Bakircioglü RAC Midfielder 15.00
J. de Guzmán MAL Midfielder 15.00

S. Agüero AMR Forward 22.00
J. Rondón MGA Forward 21.00
A. Griezmann RSO Forward 16.50

Total: 192

My team:

The winning team:

Week 28 roundup: hunting with cats

Benzema is the top scoring fantasy footballer of the week, thanks to his dominance in Real Madid's 2-0 defeat over Hercules. The french striker netted a brace and perhaps should have had more with 5 shots on target and scoring 35.5 points. Real's no.9 has scored 7 goals in his last 5 games since the arrival of Adebayor. He had managed 2 in 18 previous to the arrival of the Togalese.

The 2-2 draw between Almeria and Atletico Madrid was a points feast: Aguero (30.5) with two for Atletico and Crusat (19) for Almeria were 2nd and 3rd highest scoring strikers respectively. Atletico's Jose Reyes impressed and was 3rd top scoring midfielder with 14, without scoring a goal. Jesus Navas scored the equaliser and registered an overdue double figure score (15) as Sevilla held Barcelona 1-1. Ex-Chelsea midfielder Jiri Jarosik was the top scorer for Zaragoza in their surprise 4-0 demolition of third placed Valencia. Duda returned to Malaga's starting 11 and registered a magnificent 23.5 as the relegation threatened side leapt off the bottom of the table with a shock 2-0 win at Real Sociedad.

In defence, Espanyol's David Garcia represented super value scoring 13.5 from a market price of 4.99. Mallorca's Ivan Ramis made another appearance in the top scoring defenders list with a goal and 12 points at Levante. Real Madrid's Alvaro Arbeloa (12) and Iker Casillas (18) complete the line up: Spain's number one surprisingly busy with 4 saves in the 2-0 victory over Hercules.


Team of the week 28



My team


Benzema, Real, 35.5

Aguero, Atmad, 30.5

Crusat, Almeria, 19

Duda, Mga, 23.5

Navas, Sev, 15

Reyes, Atmad, 14.5

Jarosik, RZG, 14

David Garcia, ESP, 13.5

Arbeloa, Real, 12.5
Ramis, Mallorca, 12

Casillas, Real, 18

Results:

Getafe 2- 2 Athletic BilbaoG: Manu (58, 85) AB: Manu (og 71), Vera (90+4)

Espanyol 2-0 Deportivo La CorunaIvan Alonso (62) Verdu (82)

Levante 1-1 MallorcaL:Gomez Juanlu (37) M: Ramis (60)

Osasuna 3-1 Racing SantanderO: Kike Sola (20), Nekounam (pen 25), Soriano (49)RS: Rosenberg (52)

Real Sociedad 0-2 MalagaM: Duda (25), Jose Rondon (58)

Sevilla 1-1 BarcelonaS: Jesus Navas (49), B: Bojan (30)

Villarreal 1 -1 GijonV: Rossi (29) SG: Diego Castro (pen 90+2)

Almeria 2- 2 Atletico MadridA: Crusat (49) Goitom (77) AM: Aguero (39, 61)

Real Madrid 2 - 0 HerculesBenzema (24, 56)

Real Zaragoza 4-0 ValenciaJarosik (5), Herrera Ander (40), Fernandez Gabi (pen 66, pen 76)