Team of the week 34: Super Tono, Super Lafita!

A belated look at the top performers from last week's La Liga in fantasy terms. Zaragoza's shock defeat of Real Madrid at the Bernabeau yielded the outstanding outfield performance of the round with midfielder Angel Lafita scoring a brace and the match winner to collect 24.5 pts. Seems like the lad has the habit against Los Blancos - the only vid I could find of Lafita is of the young spaniard having another excellent game against Real for Deportivo in 2009. At a value of just 8.8, Lafita is certainly an unlikely hero of the round.

The chance of Zaragoza scoring 3 goals was given at just 1% by Speigelhalter's model and an away win was given 3% compared to Real's 87%.



szólj hozzá: Real Madrid vs Zaragoza 2-3

Racing Santander's Tono was the golden man of the round though. The goalkeeper had an astonishingly good game, racking up 8 saves, a penalty save and a clean sheet to earn a whopping 34 points as Kennedy Bakiricoglu's Racing secured a vital 2-0 win over Mallorca. All from a value of 6.5 too having scored minus points the previous two weeks.

The win moves Racing 3 pts clear of the relegation zone. A 1-0 win was predicted the most likely result by Speigelhalter's model so Tono was quite an easy pick and I rue missing out on his haul. I shyed away based on Mallorca's excellent recent form but Racing were given a 48% chance of victory compared to Mallorca's 28%. 1-0 and 1-1 were the most likely results in the Poisson distribution with 2-0 and  2-1 joint second.

The next highest scorers come from the front line. Peppe Rossi was on hand to get the match winning goal for Villarreal against Getafe and Osvaldo continued his excellent form doing likewise for Espanyol against Bilbao. Julio Baptista got a brace as Malaga scored an emphatic 3-1 win at home to Hercules - more on him in a moment.

Susaeta scored a rare goal for Bilbao in their loss to Espanyol. Cejudo and Camunas both put in excellent displays as Osasuna made sure Spiegelhalters predictions came true and beat Valencia 1-0. These guys are great for points but I never know when to pick them.


Osasuna 1 Valencia 0 by jordixana

In defence, Sevilla's defenders Fazio and Julien Escude benefitted from a straight forward 1-0 away win at Almeria while Sergio Ramos scored a rare goal to be king of the defenders for this week. And there we have it; team of the week - and not a Messi or Ronaldo or any Barcelona player in sight (although, it is absolutely necessary to mention these key words for cynical SEO purposes).

Julio Baptista has obviously been reading this blog and put in a timely display as a former EPL player making good in La Liga. "La Bestia" who had an exceedingly poor season at Arsenal during his season loan from Real Madrid in 2006/07, has been in excellent form for the struggling Malaga since arriving from Roma in the last winter transfer window. The Andalucians were recently bottom of La Liga but former Real Madrid manager Manuel Pellegrini and his motley crew have done a fantastic job of stearing clear of the relegation zone in some style.

Baptista was brought to the south coast along with the new money and a wave of forgotten misfits of European football - (see Martin Demichelis and Enzo Maresca) and the former Sevilla forward had a good start at his new club. Injured after 5 games and not featuring since week 23, he has now scored four goals in three games since returning from injury against Mallorca in week 32. Overall he has a very tidy 7 in 8 games. So, hats off to "La Bestia" - it is great to see him recapture the sort of form which saw Real Madrid fork out 20million euros for the Brazilian's services 6 years ago.


Liga BBVA. Jornada 34. Todos los goles by acosart

The best starting XI would have been:

Rossi, Villarreal, 22
Baptista, Malaga, 21.5
Osvaldo, Espanyol, 21.5

Lafita, Zaragoza, 24.5
Susaeta, Bilbao, 18
Cejudo, Osasuna, 18
Camunas, Osasuna, 15

Ramos, R.Mad, 12.5
Escude, Sevilla, 10.5
Fazio, Sevilla, 10

Tono, Santander, 34 pts*

Spiegelhalter versus the world

Spiegelhater got 6 correct results and 3 exact scores. Actual results in brackets where different.

Real Madrid 2-0 Real Zaragoza (2-3)
Real Sociedad 0-2 FC Barcelona (2-1)
Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 Atlético Madrid (0-1)
Levante UD 1-0 Sporting Gijón (0-0)
Málaga CF 1-0 Hércules CF (3-1)
Racing Santander 1- 0 RCD Mallorca (2-0)
UD Almería 0-1 Sevilla FC
Villarreal CF 2-0 Getafe CF (2-1)
Osasuna 1-0 Valencia CF
RCD Espanyol 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Week 33 predictions

Week 33 predictions using Spiegelhalter's model + players I like this week:

Valencia CF 0-1 Real Madrid

FC Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna**
(BAR) Affellay, Bojan, Keita

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad*
(BIL) Muniain, Toquero, Amorebieta

Racing Santander 1-1 Málaga CF*
(RAC) Munitis, Dos Santos

RCD Mallorca 1-0 Getafe CF
(MAL) Aouate, Nsue, Ramis, De Guzman

Sporting Gijón 1-0 RCD Espanyol
(SPO)Eguren

Hércules CF 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña
(HER) Portillo, Trezeguet

Atlético Madrid 1-0 Levante UD*
(ATL) Aguero, Reyes, Diego Costa, De Gea

Sevilla FC 1-1 Villarreal CF
(SEV) Rakitic

Real Zaragoza 1-0 UD Almería*
(ZAR) Jarosik, Braulio, Ponzio, Bertolo


*Asteriksed wins are rated +50% likely. i.e. best results to back.

Last weeks predictions: (actual results in bold)

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL 3-0
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR 1-1
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL 0-3
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV 1-0
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL 1-2
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC 2-0
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR 2-2
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG 1-0


1 correct score
5 correct results (win,draw, or loss)

Antoine Griezmann: Real Sociedad's French star of the future

Griezmann Wagon Wheel: Click to Enlarge

In a weekend when the El Clasico bigshots squeezed out pitiful fantasy point, the door was left open for some of the league's lesser known stars to shine. And French starlet Antoine Griezmann siezed the day and registered the stand-out performance from Jornada 32. The 20 year old French forward scored twice for Real Sociedad in their vital 2-1 win over Sporting Gijon and top scored the round (pending delayed results from Villarreal 1-0 Zaragoza) with 28pts. This superb display deserves closer attention.



Griezmann's triumphant week caps a stellar season for the forward who has been one of the league' most consistent performers. He has 225 pts, averages 7.26 and is ranked 19th overall in the top scorers list (just ahead of Soldado (Valencia), Nilmar (Villarreal) and Ozil (Real)). His brace took his goals tally to 7 for the season but this is a forward whose efficacy is in his all round play in the final third. While he has just 1 assist, he has also registered 20 shots on target, delivered 64 Successful crosses, won 32 Corners and drawn 37 Fouls. It all adds up.

His 28 pts was his highest weekly total this season and was a welcome reprieve for Sociedad who have been struggling for goals and slipping dangerously close to the relegation zone. With Raul Tamudo seemingly having forgotten how to be a centre forward and main man Javier Llorente missing since Week 20, Griezmann has stepped up to the plate in his side's hour of need.

Real Sociedad may not be the first club people associate with nurturing the young stars of the future but in Griezmann and Xabi Prieto, the blue Basques have produced two of the outstanding young players of this Liga season and will struggle to hold onto the young bucks for 2011/12.

U-19 Champion

• Griezmann also lined up for the French u-19 side that beat their Spanish counterparts in the European Championships in July 2010. However, the wing-wonder didn't quite have the impact he would have hoped for according to Goal.com's ratings

• Total Football Madness have provided a useful write up on the french man. According to them, Griezmann is "the next big thing to come out of France"

• I enjoyed this fab clip where Griezmann invites his teammates to invade a car after scoring against Deportivo:

Week 28 roundup: hunting with cats

Benzema is the top scoring fantasy footballer of the week, thanks to his dominance in Real Madid's 2-0 defeat over Hercules. The french striker netted a brace and perhaps should have had more with 5 shots on target and scoring 35.5 points. Real's no.9 has scored 7 goals in his last 5 games since the arrival of Adebayor. He had managed 2 in 18 previous to the arrival of the Togalese.

The 2-2 draw between Almeria and Atletico Madrid was a points feast: Aguero (30.5) with two for Atletico and Crusat (19) for Almeria were 2nd and 3rd highest scoring strikers respectively. Atletico's Jose Reyes impressed and was 3rd top scoring midfielder with 14, without scoring a goal. Jesus Navas scored the equaliser and registered an overdue double figure score (15) as Sevilla held Barcelona 1-1. Ex-Chelsea midfielder Jiri Jarosik was the top scorer for Zaragoza in their surprise 4-0 demolition of third placed Valencia. Duda returned to Malaga's starting 11 and registered a magnificent 23.5 as the relegation threatened side leapt off the bottom of the table with a shock 2-0 win at Real Sociedad.

In defence, Espanyol's David Garcia represented super value scoring 13.5 from a market price of 4.99. Mallorca's Ivan Ramis made another appearance in the top scoring defenders list with a goal and 12 points at Levante. Real Madrid's Alvaro Arbeloa (12) and Iker Casillas (18) complete the line up: Spain's number one surprisingly busy with 4 saves in the 2-0 victory over Hercules.


Team of the week 28



My team


Benzema, Real, 35.5

Aguero, Atmad, 30.5

Crusat, Almeria, 19

Duda, Mga, 23.5

Navas, Sev, 15

Reyes, Atmad, 14.5

Jarosik, RZG, 14

David Garcia, ESP, 13.5

Arbeloa, Real, 12.5
Ramis, Mallorca, 12

Casillas, Real, 18

Results:

Getafe 2- 2 Athletic BilbaoG: Manu (58, 85) AB: Manu (og 71), Vera (90+4)

Espanyol 2-0 Deportivo La CorunaIvan Alonso (62) Verdu (82)

Levante 1-1 MallorcaL:Gomez Juanlu (37) M: Ramis (60)

Osasuna 3-1 Racing SantanderO: Kike Sola (20), Nekounam (pen 25), Soriano (49)RS: Rosenberg (52)

Real Sociedad 0-2 MalagaM: Duda (25), Jose Rondon (58)

Sevilla 1-1 BarcelonaS: Jesus Navas (49), B: Bojan (30)

Villarreal 1 -1 GijonV: Rossi (29) SG: Diego Castro (pen 90+2)

Almeria 2- 2 Atletico MadridA: Crusat (49) Goitom (77) AM: Aguero (39, 61)

Real Madrid 2 - 0 HerculesBenzema (24, 56)

Real Zaragoza 4-0 ValenciaJarosik (5), Herrera Ander (40), Fernandez Gabi (pen 66, pen 76)

Week 28: Early thoughts

Marcelo: exciting

Early thoughts on this weekend's matchups:

Picking as many as you can from Real represents the biggest temptation this weekend - their match features the biggest disparity between two rivals with Los Blancos at home to struggling Hercules. With injuries still lurking for Ronaldo and Higuain, it makes Fantasy selection a lot more straight forward.

Benzema has been in fine form since the arrival of Adebayor and Mourinho started the two together against Santander. With Kaka perplexingly out of favour, there's every reason to expect the front four of Ozil, Di Maria, Benzema and Ade will start and amass a wanton load between them. If money allows, it would be prudent to squeeze in fullback Marcelo - sensational in the 7-0 drubbing handed to Malaga at home a fortnight ago.

On paper, Villarreal v Sporting Gijon should be a reliable source of points for the home side. However, since Sporting love an upset and Villarreal have been in such stumbling form, it could easily be a damp
squib. Nilmar at 18 and Rossi at 23 feel off-puttingly overpriced. Cazorla at 16 feels plausible, while Cani has dropped to 9 and in goal Diego Lopez has dropped nicely in price to 12.

Levante v Mallorca should be an exciting game for goals. Levante have been in fine fettle, especially at home, and it feels like Caicedo always scores at home. It is tempting to go for the Ecuadorian (14) and AN other. Perhaps the mysterious goal scoring wing-wizard Valdo - in midfield at just 8. Maybe Juanlu - highest scoring midfielder for LEV with 125 enjoys an SOT and an SC.

The rest of the ties feel murky and unpleasent. A standard routine win for the increasingly unlikeable Barca at the expense of Seville (missing Luis Fabiano for 6 weeks now). Almeria could upset the easily upsettable Atletico Madrid. Interesting to see what Piatti can do in this one for Almeria. Valencia look increasingly good and will surely triumph at Zaragoza. Never know where points are coming from with Los Che though. Not tempting enough to invest in this week.

Espanyol will surely get back to winning ways at home to the obdurate Deportivo. Looks like a good time to bring in Kameni in goal. Priced just 11. Also Galan is a perpetually good value defender at 1.

Sociedad will surely triumph over stinky Malaga. The only certainty is that Sociedad will score. Xavi Prieto is a temptation at 13. Agirretxe is the only fit striker and should start in place of injured Tamudo. Bravo in goal at 8.24 looks excellent value. Griezmann takes corners and scores goals. Valued 12.5. Expect Osasuna and Racing to be tight with a clean sheet for Ricardo. Getafe v Bilbao feels dreary.

Sat, Mar 12 ALM versus AMR
Sat, Mar 12 RZG versus VAL
Sat, Mar 12 MAD versus HER
Sun, Mar 13 SEV versus BAR
Sun, Mar 13 VIL versus SPO
Sun, Mar 13 LEV versus MAL
Sun, Mar 13 ESP versus DEP
Sun, Mar 13 RSO versus MGA
Sun, Mar 13 OSA versus RAC
Mon, Mar 14 GET versus BIL

Tuesday Night: Day 26

Espanyol 1 - 2 Mallorca
Sevilla 3 - 0 Gijon

Mallorca registered the upset of the evening defeating 5th placed Espanyol 2-1, while Sevilla joined Mallorca in the climb towards European football places, easing to a 3-0 win over Gijon.

There were no wonder scores: all round team work was the order of the day. Mallorca's Nsue was the top scoring player of the evening with 16pts. But, Seville's players dominated the top scorers, with 7 out of the top 11 coming from Southern side.

Perotti (14), Fabiano (13.5) and Negredo (8) did the damage up front, Varas (10) kept up his good form deputising in goal, but the defenders truly excelled with Navarro (10.5), Dabo (10) and Fazio (9.5) all returning excellent value. Dabo was worth 3 at the start of the day, Navarro, 6.

I only had Sevilla's Rakitic and Gijon's Jose Angel playing last night. Rakitic got a reasonable 6.5 off a value of 8. Angel didn't turn up unfortunately. Hoping for a big night Thursday from Real with Ozil, Di Maria, Marcelo and Adebayor lining up. Tonight looking to Sociedad's Tamudo and Atletico's Koke can keep up their goalscoring form and Barca's GK Pinto to keep up the good work in a tricky away tie at Valencia.

Week 25 preview: Espanyol v Real Sociedad

The first preview for Week 25

Espanyol 6th v Real Sociedad 8th

• Espanyol have slumped to 6th while RSO have been climbing to 8th.
• Espanyol have lost 4 in a row - seeing the once imperious GK Kameni's value plumet to 10.
• But Espanyol have only lost thrice at home to Barca, Madrid and Villarreal
• RSO have lost only 1 in 4 (at the Bernabeau)
• Callejon and Duscher are carrying knocks for ESP
• Tamudo scored for Espanyol the last time that Espanyol lost at home to RSO (8 years ago)

Predictions

An Espanyol victory has to be a slight favourite, but they have been struggling with goals and can expect fierce resistance from RSO. Many ESP players' value have sunk due to their recent poor run. Tempting bargains include:

Forward, Sergio Garcia, 7.9
Forward, Luis Garcia, 12.95
Defender, E Galan, 1.00
GK, Kameni, 10.

For RSO, there are few temptations to be had with a good solid run of form for the team all round. It seems worth hanging on to Tamudo if you have him for cheap. I got him in at 11 his value has soared to 16. A good shout for a goal against his old side. Prieto is good value but will have to go though after his dissapointing display last week.

Predicted score: 2-1 goals for Callejon for ESP and Tamudo for RSO

Week 21 preview: Barca's achilles heal - Hercules

Hercules (12th) v Barca (1st) - sat

Xinhuanet reminds us this week that "FC Barcelona travels to Alicante to face the only side to defeat them this season in Spain' s matchday 21 on Saturday."

Dani Alves has been training and could be back so Adriano may disappear back to the underworld before he is called upon again. Pedro should continue for me in attack. It doesn't seem necessary or tempting to splash out on expensive wonders such as Villa or Messi. Hercules main worry is Royston Drenthe. The dutch flanker has been in great form but since the recent pay dispute he and and his side seem to be in freefall.

Tempting players: only Pedro, maybe.

Osasuna (17th) v Real Madrid (2nd) - sun

Ade checks in

Real's new signing Emmanual Adebayor may be a boon for Jose Mourinho but the arrival of the Togolese striker only adds more uncertainty to the Real Madrid forward line for fantasy pickers. He's rumoured to be a certain starter but will Benzema be ditched after his match winning performance last week? Much aspersions have been cast about the French no.9 Benzema, who, it turns out, isn't a no.9 at all.

Tempting players: after recent disappointments, none feel safe.

Mallorca (9th) v Sporting Gijon (15th) - sat

Pierre Webo

This fixture would seem to offer the most juicy returns with Mallorca surely set to get back to winning ways against the league minnows. Forwards Tereja, Nsue, Perreira and Webo (all valued around the 10 mark) all started at the Bernabeau and any of these will surely be a profitable selection.

I'm tempted by Webo, if only because he's their top scorer and I haven't given him a run out before. It seems prudent to give him a run out at the expense of Benzema. I've also drafted in Nunes in defence after his glowing recommendation by Goal.com.

Tempting players: anyone who's fit at Mallorca, especially defensive line (GK Aouate) and forwards.

A.Madrid (7th) v A.Bilbao (6th) - sun

The clash of the Atleticos is one of the ties of the round. Madrid are stumbling along but could welcome back Reyes and Aguero. Bilbao however are flying and should be well in the mood to score an upset.

Tempting players: A.Madrid bargain defenders A.Lopez (2.46) and Perea (2.62).

Espanyol (5th) v Villarreal (3rd) - sun

Another exciting and hard to predict tie. It seems worth hanging on to baby Ruben up front for Villarreal, especially as Espanyol have just sold one of their best defenders. It would be nice to draft in a couple of Espanyol forward players such as Sergio Garcia or Callejon, but Villarreal's defenders and keeper will have to go.

Tempting players: Espanyol forwards, Garcia (a bargain at 11), Callejon (18) and Luis Garcia (16)

Tamudo

Real Sociedad (11th) v Almeria (18th) - sat

Could be an apt time to draft in superstar Xavi Prieto from the Sociedad midfield. The young buck has dropped in value to 12.76 and is surely likely to do the business for a Sociedad side who seem to be finding some form.

Also, veteran striker Tamudo comes in up front in the place of injured Javier Llorente and represents a tempting replacement for Villarreal's Ruben at 6.64.


Other games to consider:

Sat, Jan 29 Malaga v Zaragoza: a first win for newly moneyed Malaga against struggling Z?
Sat, Jan 29 Deportivo v Seville: a turgid but likely win for Seville.
Sat, Jan 29 Levante v Getafe: A good opportunity for Getafe to get their season back on track
Mon, Jan 31 Racing Santander v Valencia: Surely a win for Los Chos.