Showing posts with label Spiegelhalter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spiegelhalter. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 December 2011

W17 preview

With Barcelona proving they’re the best team in the world by beating
useless sides no-one’s heard of in Japan this week, Real Madrid have
an ideal opportunity to reclaim their 3 point cushion at the top of
the Liga before the winter break. Egos in the Real dressing room are
bruised and battered after last week’s humbling in El Clasico. Despite
the increasing feeling that the power balance may have been shifting
at the top after years of Catalunian dominance, Barca’s 3-1 victory,
and Cristiano Ronaldo’s ineffective display were an all too familiar
return to the status quo. All Real can do in response is do what they
have been doing all season (before last week’s interruption) and win.

Sevilla have been awkward opposition for Los Merengues over the past
few years, having won four of their last six Liga meetings between the
two sides at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán stadium. Saying that, Jose
Mourinho bucked the trend when his side registered a 6-2 thrashing in
this fixture as recently as May this year with Ronaldo scoring four.
This season, Los Blancos have been devastating away from home with 21
goals from 8 games. However they come up against a Sevilla defence
that has looked far more organised this year and put in a magnificent
display to earn a clean sheet at Camp Nou earlier this term.

Real have no new injury worries, with just Ricardo Carvalho out
long-term. Sevilla’s Argentine winger Diego Perrotti is struggling
with a knock. This should be a victory for Real. 3-1 Real, look out
for a vengeful display from Ronaldo.

Third placed Valencia also had a wobble last week when they stopped
playing after 89 minutes and conspired to lose against Real Betis.
This week, It’s a case of “old money” (maybe that should be, “no
money”) versus “new money” as they take on the nouveau riche Malaga.
Los Che need to get back to winning ways with Levante rediscovering
their form and breathing down their necks in fourth place. Unai Emery
welcomed back the classy Ever Banega during the midweek Copa del Rey
visit to Cadiz and the Argentinian schemer could be back in the
starting line-up this weekend. I’ll tip a Valencia win. 2-1 Ones to
watch: Soldado and Tino Costa.

Levante have a tricky visit to Granada but should prevail against the
promoted side who have one of the meanest defences in the Liga. This
is likely to be a low-scoring affair with Aruna Kone the best bet to
nick a goal.

Osasuna have had an excellent start to the season in stark contrast to
Villarreal who they host this weekend. The Pamplonans have been free
scoring and great entertainment value. They welcome back born-again
midfield maestro Raul Garcia this week, and in tandem with attacking
dynamo Alvaro Cejudo, Los Rojillos are more than capable of heaping on
further misery for the Yellow Submarine. 2-0: Ones to watch: Nino,
Ibrahima.

Espanyol and Sporting Gijon go head to head after both sides recorded
impressive wins last week. Expect a low score draw. Ones to watch:
Romaric (Espanyol), Nacho Novo (Gijon)

Athletic Bilbao take on the struggling Zaragoza at San Mames. This is
an ideal opportunity for Bilbao to get back to winning ways after a
stuttering spell in La Liga. Underachieving wing-wizard Jermaine
Pennant suffered some kind of anterograde amnesia in 2009 after he
signed for Zaragoza: he was always late; forgot where he parked his
car and seemed to lose all footballing ability during his stint on the
continent. A similar collective sickness appears to have gripped a
side who have become totally devoid of talent, ambition or desire and
are now rooted to the foot of the table. Bilbao are without suspended
captain Andani Iraola and Fernando Llorente is a doubt. 3-1 home win.
Ones to watch: Ander Herrera, Toquero, Muniain and Susaesta.

Atletico Madrid come galloping into their home tie with Real Betis off
the back of their triumphant Europa Cup performance in midweek.
Despite the fact their fans hate them, Gregory’s Manzano’s boys love
playing at home and with Falcao, Ada Turan and Diego all starting to
purr, expect another home win. 3-1 Atletico.

On paper, Mallorca versus Getafe may look like the sort of game that
any neutral would rather poke their own eyes out than endure. However,
it excites me, if only because Mallorca are starting to look like they
can win and this could be one of the most one-sided games of the
weekend. Getafe are useless. Victor knows how to score

Racing Santander versus Sociedad is up there in the tedium rankings.
Sociedad keep squeezing out the points and Carlos Vela is starting to
fulfill his potential as the poor man’s Lionel Messi. Racing Santander
can’t excite me unless Kennedy Bakiricoglu is playing, and he’s still
a doubt. A deathly 1-1. Snooze fest

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Week 9: predictions


  • Most likely wins: Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Real Betis
  • Where do I trust the goals be: Barcelona, Malaga, Real Madrid, Sociedad, Atletico Madrid, Real Betis.
  • Barcelona: Alves, Iniesta, Villa, Messi, Pedro
  • Malaga: Cazorla, Van Nistelrooy,
  • Real Madrid: Ronaldo, Ozil, Higuain, Kaka
  • Sociedad:I. Agirretxe, D. Zurutuza, A. Griezmann,
  • Atletico Madrid: Falcao, Diego, Reyes
  • Real Betis: Benat, Sevilla, Santa Cruz

Friday, 30 September 2011

La Liga Week 7 Predictions

Huge favourites are Valencia, Malaga and Barcelona. The only thing that's bugging me is who to go for in the Valencia midfield. Rotation is definite. Is it worth taking a punt on Jonas or Tino starting?

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

Jornada 36: La Liga predictions 10th/11th May



This week's predictions see Barcelona and Real Madrid heavy favourites as ever. The only other sides give a 50%+ chance of a win are Villarreal at Almeria and Osasuna against Sevilla. However, it is the business end of the season and the relegation threatened sides are starting to fight like mad to survive the drop, adding more unquantifiable variables to the mix. Only Almeria's demise has been decided and any two sides from 8th placed Espanyol down could still be relegated.

Apart from wins for the top 2 the only result I feel confident about is a Malaga win. Malaga majestically defied last weekend's predictions and are one of the form teams in the league and should ease past Gijon. The rest could be chaos and there should be plenty of goals. Hercules have to win. They will need big performances from Valdez, Trezeguet et al.

In summary:

Barcelona will win the league tonight.
Real will hammer Getafe out of pure fury.
Malaga will beat Gijon to all but secure safety.
Hercules will beat Mallorca to keep breathing.
Villarreal and Valencia will win.
Osasuna will beat Sevilla
Sociedad v Zaragoza, A.MAd v Racing and Deportivo v Bilbao will all be massive scraps.

It will be difficult to predict the Real lineup but at least Guadiola has said that he will not play a reserve side until they have secured the liga title.

My team this week:

My team!

More team news from Football 365

Friday, 6 May 2011

La Liga: Predictions week 35

Week 35 Predictions
This weeks predictions according to Spiegelhalter see heavily favoured wins for Barcelona (89%), Atletico Madrid (72%), Valencia (69%), Atletico Bilbao (59%) and Real Madrid (58%).

Of course, Spiegelhalter does not take into account the factors that influence a catalunian derby but a heavy defeat for Espanyol looks on the cards either way. Barca will be expected to rest their big guns as per last week so it seems prudent to stick with Affellay and go for outsiders such as Thiago and Jeffren again. We should at least get goals.

Atletico Madrid are in hot, hot form and Spiegelhalter only backs up what we all know to expect from their tie with Malaga: goals. This game should yield lots of goals, whatever the result with Malaga also scoring freely in recent games. Sticking with the likes of Aguero and Reyes appears safe but it could be a worthy gamble to take a punt on Forlan or Diego Costa.

Valencia will surely get back to winning ways at home to Sociedad even if the Basques scored that shocker over Real last week. Jonas feels like a good pick.

Meanwhile, Bilbao look good for a home win over Levante. Muniain, Llorente and Toquero all feel like safe bets.

I don't like the look of Real away though, even though heavily favoured in the predictions, and will be staying away from this fixture.

This is the predictions in brief: get as many Barcelona, Bilbao, and A.Madrid guys as you can. I also like Miku and Rios from Getafe. Hope they help!

Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Team of the week 34: Super Tono, Super Lafita!

A belated look at the top performers from last week's La Liga in fantasy terms. Zaragoza's shock defeat of Real Madrid at the Bernabeau yielded the outstanding outfield performance of the round with midfielder Angel Lafita scoring a brace and the match winner to collect 24.5 pts. Seems like the lad has the habit against Los Blancos - the only vid I could find of Lafita is of the young spaniard having another excellent game against Real for Deportivo in 2009. At a value of just 8.8, Lafita is certainly an unlikely hero of the round.

The chance of Zaragoza scoring 3 goals was given at just 1% by Speigelhalter's model and an away win was given 3% compared to Real's 87%.



szólj hozzá: Real Madrid vs Zaragoza 2-3

Racing Santander's Tono was the golden man of the round though. The goalkeeper had an astonishingly good game, racking up 8 saves, a penalty save and a clean sheet to earn a whopping 34 points as Kennedy Bakiricoglu's Racing secured a vital 2-0 win over Mallorca. All from a value of 6.5 too having scored minus points the previous two weeks.

The win moves Racing 3 pts clear of the relegation zone. A 1-0 win was predicted the most likely result by Speigelhalter's model so Tono was quite an easy pick and I rue missing out on his haul. I shyed away based on Mallorca's excellent recent form but Racing were given a 48% chance of victory compared to Mallorca's 28%. 1-0 and 1-1 were the most likely results in the Poisson distribution with 2-0 and  2-1 joint second.

The next highest scorers come from the front line. Peppe Rossi was on hand to get the match winning goal for Villarreal against Getafe and Osvaldo continued his excellent form doing likewise for Espanyol against Bilbao. Julio Baptista got a brace as Malaga scored an emphatic 3-1 win at home to Hercules - more on him in a moment.

Susaeta scored a rare goal for Bilbao in their loss to Espanyol. Cejudo and Camunas both put in excellent displays as Osasuna made sure Spiegelhalters predictions came true and beat Valencia 1-0. These guys are great for points but I never know when to pick them.


Osasuna 1 Valencia 0 by jordixana

In defence, Sevilla's defenders Fazio and Julien Escude benefitted from a straight forward 1-0 away win at Almeria while Sergio Ramos scored a rare goal to be king of the defenders for this week. And there we have it; team of the week - and not a Messi or Ronaldo or any Barcelona player in sight (although, it is absolutely necessary to mention these key words for cynical SEO purposes).

Julio Baptista has obviously been reading this blog and put in a timely display as a former EPL player making good in La Liga. "La Bestia" who had an exceedingly poor season at Arsenal during his season loan from Real Madrid in 2006/07, has been in excellent form for the struggling Malaga since arriving from Roma in the last winter transfer window. The Andalucians were recently bottom of La Liga but former Real Madrid manager Manuel Pellegrini and his motley crew have done a fantastic job of stearing clear of the relegation zone in some style.

Baptista was brought to the south coast along with the new money and a wave of forgotten misfits of European football - (see Martin Demichelis and Enzo Maresca) and the former Sevilla forward had a good start at his new club. Injured after 5 games and not featuring since week 23, he has now scored four goals in three games since returning from injury against Mallorca in week 32. Overall he has a very tidy 7 in 8 games. So, hats off to "La Bestia" - it is great to see him recapture the sort of form which saw Real Madrid fork out 20million euros for the Brazilian's services 6 years ago.


Liga BBVA. Jornada 34. Todos los goles by acosart

The best starting XI would have been:

Rossi, Villarreal, 22
Baptista, Malaga, 21.5
Osvaldo, Espanyol, 21.5

Lafita, Zaragoza, 24.5
Susaeta, Bilbao, 18
Cejudo, Osasuna, 18
Camunas, Osasuna, 15

Ramos, R.Mad, 12.5
Escude, Sevilla, 10.5
Fazio, Sevilla, 10

Tono, Santander, 34 pts*

Spiegelhalter versus the world

Spiegelhater got 6 correct results and 3 exact scores. Actual results in brackets where different.

Real Madrid 2-0 Real Zaragoza (2-3)
Real Sociedad 0-2 FC Barcelona (2-1)
Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 Atlético Madrid (0-1)
Levante UD 1-0 Sporting Gijón (0-0)
Málaga CF 1-0 Hércules CF (3-1)
Racing Santander 1- 0 RCD Mallorca (2-0)
UD Almería 0-1 Sevilla FC
Villarreal CF 2-0 Getafe CF (2-1)
Osasuna 1-0 Valencia CF
RCD Espanyol 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Friday, 29 April 2011

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Week 33 predictions

Week 33 predictions using Spiegelhalter's model + players I like this week:

Valencia CF 0-1 Real Madrid

FC Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna**
(BAR) Affellay, Bojan, Keita

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad*
(BIL) Muniain, Toquero, Amorebieta

Racing Santander 1-1 Málaga CF*
(RAC) Munitis, Dos Santos

RCD Mallorca 1-0 Getafe CF
(MAL) Aouate, Nsue, Ramis, De Guzman

Sporting Gijón 1-0 RCD Espanyol
(SPO)Eguren

Hércules CF 1-0 Deportivo La Coruña
(HER) Portillo, Trezeguet

Atlético Madrid 1-0 Levante UD*
(ATL) Aguero, Reyes, Diego Costa, De Gea

Sevilla FC 1-1 Villarreal CF
(SEV) Rakitic

Real Zaragoza 1-0 UD Almería*
(ZAR) Jarosik, Braulio, Ponzio, Bertolo


*Asteriksed wins are rated +50% likely. i.e. best results to back.

Last weeks predictions: (actual results in bold)

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL 3-0
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR 1-1
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL 0-3
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV 1-0
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL 1-2
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC 2-0
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER 2-1
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR 2-2
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG 1-0


1 correct score
5 correct results (win,draw, or loss)

Thursday, 14 April 2011

Week 32 predictions

I dream of being able to mathematically predict the best fantasy football 11 going into the week on yahoo fantasy football. I've been working on a model to predict team scores first, then will move onto players. For now, I'm working on predictions for scores. Using Spiegelhalter's model I've got the following results predicted for next weekend's (16th April 2011) matches

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG

Wednesday, 13 April 2011