La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles

The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.

In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.

The current La Liga standings:



Key:

• League position cannot change
• Nothing but pride to play for
• Could be relegated
• Europa Cup

So, there are 6 teams battling to avoid that last relegation spot and three teams fighting trying to avoid going through the qualification rounds of the Europa Cup. Exciting stuff!

Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:

Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF

Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?

Levante 1-0 Zaragoza

The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.

Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi

Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe

A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.

Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.

Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal

This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.

Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders

Deportivo 0-1 Valencia

This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.

Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado

RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.

Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero

RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC

Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.

Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute

Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.

Pick: AB - Muniain

Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.

Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:



My current lineup for this weekend:

GK

Aoute, Mallorca, 4

Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1

Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5

Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5

La Liga: Predictions Week 34

Week 34 Predictions

This week's predictions. Invariably, Real Madrid and Barcelona are massive favourites in their games with the maths showing an almost certain victory for both sides. In both games, the most likely score is 2-0 and the second most likely score is 3-0. The only problem for fantasy football pickers is who to pick as both sides will be rotating their lineups. It seems prudent to refer to last week. For Barcelona, the likes of Affellay and Thiago represent good value and are likely to start. For Real, it is a case of trying to find the cash for Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. Or for a good bargain go for defender Garay.

Villarreal follow closely with a whopping 75% chance of a home win against struggling Getafe. Only problem is that the Submarines are stuttering. Rossi keeps scoring as does Cazorla (in fantasy terms). Nilmar is tempting because he is good value but hasn't scored for ages.

Espanyol, Levante and Sevilla all come in with a 50% chance of winning their games. I don't trust that prediction for Espanyol at home to Bilbao. Bilbao have been in good recent form while Espanyol haven't won for a while. But, both sides should get at least one goal. Likewise, Gijon have been in excellent form recently and it will be a difficult game for Levante. Caicedo is good for a goal though. Sevilla would be the best bet against the doomed Almeria. Rakitic and Negredo being the best attacking picks for the southerners.

Away from these games, no side is given more than a 50% chance of winning. Osasuna desperately need a win to get out of the relegation places and their excellent home record comes up against Valencia's excellent away record; stubborn 0-0 specialists Deportivo face free scoring Atletico; and Malaga, coming into form just in time, are in a crucial relegation 6 pointer with Hercules. Whatever the outcome, all these games should yield plenty of goals so there are lots of points up for grabs. From these games, I like Duda and Baptista (Malaga), Aguero and Diego Costa (Atleti).

Week 20: Caicedo? Piatti? Adriano?

Barcelona (1st) v Racing Santander (14th)

Adriano, should start for Barca

Of course a home win for Barca over Kennedy Bakircioglu's Racing, who are now under new ownership. The question of course is how many and who will score. They have a full strength side apart from at right back where Dani Alves is out meaning Adriano fills in. The Brazilian has a relatively unremarkable record of 16.5 points in 7 appearances but has appeared in the last two weeks and did score 9.5 in week 18 during the 4-0 win at Depor. Could be worth a punt at 7.25.

Messi is 43.48, Villa 30.88: Pedro still feels like a bargain at 21.16. Xavi is 13.99 but only has scored +10 3 times this year, Iniesta is 15.67 and has scored in 3 of the past 5 weeks.

Real Mad (2nd) v Mallorca (9th)

So Real will look to get back to winning ways against Mallorca who were pumped 3-0 by "the other" Madrid last weekend. Mourinho will have the same selection issues up front with Benzema (11.69) and Kaka (10.21) vying for a starting spot. Strangely, Ronaldo not included, Real still have some of the best bargains around and it seems at once naive and prudent to persevere with having 4 of Real's possible starting 5 forwards in keeping hold of the above along with Ozil (5.45) (6.11) and Di Maria. It's in defence where changes need to be made where card prone Carvalho and Albiol need to be given a rest.

Villarreal (3rd) v Real Sociedad (11th)

Cazorla returns

Should be a straight forward win for Villarreal with no new injury worries. Lovely Ruben has to be kept, his value soaring to 9.56 from 6.55 (1 goal, 1 assist and 3 SOTs last week). It's a case of how many spots are left over from the Real bargains to squeeze in some Yellows. It's tempting to get in Cani and Cazorla and some defenders. Spanish international Cazorla returns and is Villarreal's 3rd highest scorer with 144.5 this season, but pricey at 15.59.

Valencia (4th) v Malaga (16th)

Valencia need to keep winning to keep Espanyol at bay and keep up the heat on 3rd placed Villarreal. Problem is, they're a tough squad to pick from, seeing as it seems to comprise entirely of midfielders. Vicente looks a bargain at 6.67 but the winger scored -1 last week. Rumour has it that top scorer Adruiz will return this week too and that could see Vicente bumped.

Getafe (8th) v Espanyol (5th)

Espanyol need to win over unpredictable Getafe. Espanyol players don't get a lot of points and their best players are pricey - Callejon (16.22) and Kameni (15.88). Could be as well to leave this fixture alone.

Sevilla (10th) v LEV (19th)

This looks like a good fixture to pick up some points. Seville are scoring in the league and the cup. Romaric (only 5.75) is tipped by Goal.com to be the key man for Seville but there's a host of tempting attacking and defensive picks - Kanoute (15.91), Fabiano (18.21), Navas (15.03). Think I'll draft in Martin Caceres in defence. This Uruguayan chap is on loan from Barca having cost the champions 16.5million euros a couple of seasons back but has failed to establish himself at Barca, or at Juve (loan last year). He's only 5.75 and should get a clean sheet.

However, he will need to be sharp to marshal Levante's in form striker Felipe Caicedo (on loan from Man City).  The Ecuadorian, who cost City $7million from Basel and scored 8 goals under Mark Hughes in his first full season, has 7 goals in 13 appearances at Levante this term.


And the rest?

Almeria have a mysterious forward called Piatti (15.67) who is the 5th highest scoring player (165.5) who is not from Barca or Real. They're playing home to struggling Osasuna.




Also, lumbering Llorente, 4th top scorer in the league on 11, has a home game for Bilbao against Hercules.

Sun

Sporting Gijon v Athl Madrid
Real Zaragoza v Deportivo
Almería v Osasuna

Mon

Athl Bilbao v HER

My team:

Diego Lopez (Villa)

Gaspar (villa)
Alexis (sev)
Caceres (sev)

Ozil (Real)
Di Maria (Real)
Kaka (Real)
Cani (Villa)

Benzema (Real)
Ruben (Villa)
Pedro (Barca)