Week 32 predictions

I dream of being able to mathematically predict the best fantasy football 11 going into the week on yahoo fantasy football. I've been working on a model to predict team scores first, then will move onto players. For now, I'm working on predictions for scores. Using Spiegelhalter's model I've got the following results predicted for next weekend's (16th April 2011) matches

Sat, Apr 16 MGA 1-1 MAL
Sat, Apr 16 MAD 1-3 BAR
Sat, Apr 16 ALM 0-2 VAL
Sat, Apr 16 GET 2-2 SEV
Sun, Apr 17 OSA 1-1 BIL
Sun, Apr 17 RSO 1-0 SPO
Sun, Apr 17 DEP 0-0 RAC
Sun, Apr 17 LEV 1-0 HER
Sun, Apr 17 ESP 1-1 AMR
Mon, Apr 18 VIL 1-0 RZG

Predicting results

A Brilliant piece of predicting football results from David Spiegelhalter's blog


http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/763

Team of the week 31



Soldado (Eurosport)

 FORWARDS

*Roberto Soldado (Valencia) 37 pts*

Hero of the week for second week running. Scored twice and got 37 pts as Valencia thrashed Villarreal 5-0. Gap between Valencia in 3rd and Villarreal in 4th is now 6 pts.

Lionel Messi (Barca) 27.5

Brace ensured Barca eased to victory 3-1 despite going a goal behind to struggling Almeria.

Juan Mata (Valencia) 23.5

The young spaniard registers a long over due big score in the Villarreal rout.

MIDFIELD

Banega (Valencia) 24

Argentinian wunderkid makes his mark with dominant display. Also represents value of the week being 5.24 going into the game.

Bertolo (Zaragoza) 20

Crucial match winning goal to help Zaragoza move 3 points clear of relegation zone.

Jose Reyes (Atletico Madrid) 16
Another heavily involved performance as Atletico hand a 3-0 drubbing to Sociedad, outscoring the Kun Aguero despite not getting on the score sheet.

De Guzman (Mallorca) 16
Scores for the second week in a row in an entertaining 2-2 draw with Sevilla.

DEFENCE

Filipe Luis (Atletico Madrid) 19
Scores his first of the season in Atleti win.

Jose Angel (Gijon) 12.5
Another impressive display from the Gijon wing back as they earn a crucial 1-0 home win against Osasuna. (David Barral with the goal)

Drenthe (Hercules) 12
Dutch master appears in top 11 for 2nd week in a row but can't bring Hercules a much needed home win against Espanyol.

GK

Cesar (Val) 18/ De Gea (Atleti) 18
Big displays from the spanish custodians showing their respective sides' victories weren't all down to attacking prowess.

In other news:

Real Madrid made whole sale changes to their starting line up meaning Kaka started and scored 2 pens.

Full side

R. Soldado VAL forward 37
L. Messi BAR forward 27.5
Juan Mata VAL forward 23.5

�. Banega VAL midfielder 24
N. Bertolo RZG midfielder 20
J. Reyes AMR midfielder 16
Jonathan de Guzmán MAL midfielder 16

Filipe Luis AMR defender 19
José Ángel SPO defender 12.5
R. Drenthe HER defender 12

D. De Gea AMR goalkeeper 18
Cesar VAL goalkeeper 18

Football | La Liga | Real Zaragoza 2-1 Getafe | ESPNSTAR.com

Football La Liga Real Zaragoza 2-1 Getafe ESPNSTAR.com

Ivan Rakitic (sevilla): Who are you and why are you good?

Rakitic

This week, I'm thinking about Ivan Rakitic. He is 22, Croatian international midfielder and cost Sevilla $1.5m when he signed from Schalke in January 2011.

I like to think I'm fairly well up on the hot prospects around Europe but this youngster arrived out of the blue at Sevilla at the end of the winter transfer window to take La Liga by storm.

His value has rocketed and he is now worth 19.5m (in YFF terms). I have the Sevilla midfielder at 16.4 having brough him in last weekend for Sevilla's 3-1 home win against Zaragoza. He returned 16.5 without a goal. This weekend, 6th placed Sevilla are away to 10th placed Mallorca who have been in a bit of form themselves. But Sevilla won their last away game 1-0 at 3rd placed Valencia. Rakitic scored the winner.

He has played 9 Liga games in a row since an inconspicuous start to his career in a 0-0 home draw against Malaga at the start of February (Week 22). In the 9 games he's played, Sevilla have won 4, drawn 3, lost 2.

His vital stats are: 9 games, 3 goals, 2 Assists, 2 Match Winning Goals, 8 shots on target, 19 Successful crosses, 5 Corners won, 5 Fouls won

He has 85.5 pts at an average of 9.5.

So the dilemma is: Rakitic is awesome and his value grows and grows and Sevilla are on a great run of form. But, it is much harder to return his value away from home, talismanic Kanoute is missing, and Mallorca are in good shape too.

In the same ballpark I could have Reyes, 16.92, at home to Real Sociedad. Gio dos Santos, 14.31, at home to Levante. How good is Rakitic going to get?

He also scored goal of the season 06/07 when playing in the Swiss league:

Week 30 review: Soldado and the kings

A dark horse

A stunning weekend in La Liga as a host of dark horses stole in to grab the headlines while the more notorious show ponies were bumped to the sidelines.

The main story is obviously Mourinho's first loss at home in 10 years: the game which allowed Gijon's GK Juan Pablo (John Paul to you and me) to score a whopping 29 points! Naturally, the Mou wheeled out his "they parked the bus" complaints, but the fact that Pablo had to make 11 saves, rather suggests it was the Real forwards rather than Gijon's defence that was responsible for the defeat.

Juan Pablo holds Hernandez (reuters)

His charges were hopelessly shown up by the ruthless efficiency of Miguel del la Cuevas who snatched a rare opportunity and match winning goal to earn himself 14.5 pts, a place week's best XI and give Gijon the win. Real, without Benzema and Ronaldo, had to rely on Adebayor to lead the line, and the Man City loanee had a shocker missing a host of chances registering a meagre 5 pts. Half-fit Higuain was dragged off the bench in the 2nd half to save his side but the Argentinian could not save his Mou. Fortunately for Fantasy pickers, his tiny 4.5 will surely see his value drop below 20 and make him an appealling pick for next week. Di Maria with 12 and Ozil with 8 returned their value as expected but Arbeloa let me down with a measly 0.5.

Roberto Soldado was the ubermensch of the weekend, plundering 4 goals and 45 points as Valencia crushed Getafe 4-2 and jumped to 3rd. Soldado had 5 goals in 28 appearances before this but his uneering display ensured Valencia bounced back to winning ways after two defeats in a row going into the international break. The man tends to blitz. He got 29 pts in week 13 but has been quiet since.

Diego Costa hattrick Photo EFE

Diego Costa, (valued at just 5.8!) started ahead of Diego Forlan and scored a hattrick to help Atletico win a difficult tie 3-2 away at in form Osasuna. A bit of a shocker all round there. On a personal note, I was pretty chuffed with the prescience of my Kike Sola pick, as the centre forward scored for the home side (but only got 9.5). Was a bit disappointed in Camunas for OSA who only got 1.5.

Levante did the unthinkable and scored a load of goals without Caicedo featuring. Stuani took on the mantle and again at the astonishingly cheap rate of 6.31 scored twice and got 31 as Levante beat relegation rivals Malaga 3-1.

Rakitic had another superb week at the heart of Sevilla's midfield. Who is this guy? I was pleased I forked out on the 16.4 million man as he got 16.5 points without a goal as the southerners crushed Zaragoza 3-1. Former Chelsea man Jarosik had another fine game for the away side scoring a goal.

Osvaldo

Another ex-prem reject, Giovani dos Santos was also amongst the goals as Kennedy Bakircoglu's Racing Santander snatched a surprise 2-1 win at Espanyol. Espanyol's season is going steadily down the pan after they looked so good earlier on. For my part, I was again pleased to have Osvaldo as the striker returned to the starting 11 to score a pen, but a bit miffed that he only got 11 pts.

Hercules delivered another blow to my week as they beat Sociedad 3-1 away thanks to the dutch Gareth Bale - Royston Drenthe (registered a defender, plays left wing, Hercules' best attacking threat). The cheaky scamp scored twice to ensure Sociedad's and my GK Bravo registered -1. I took some solice in defender Gonzalez (valued 3) scoring 4.5. 150% return! Hercules haven't done anything away from home since they beat Barca at the Nou Camp at the start of the season.

Barca in the mean time continued their tedious march to the title, and two of their defenders complete this week's top XI. Pique poked one in to score the only goal and Dani Alves must have done everything else as he got 15pts. Messi came off the bench to get 5. Awarded a rare start, Affellay scored more than 0.5 points for the first time since arriving with 5!

So here is this week's star 11. Of course, this could all change following tonight's match between Almeria and Athletico Bilbao.

player-team-(price) score

R. Soldado - VAL - (12.92) 45.00
Diego Costa - AMR - (5.80) 35.00
Stuani - LEV - (6.31) 31.00

Giovani dos Santos - RAC - (9.90) 17.00
I. Rakitic - SEV - (16.40) 16.50
J. Jarosik - RZG - (6.19) 15.00
Miguel de las Cuevas - SPO - (13.49) 14.50

Dani Alves - BAR - (18.13) 15.00
G. Piqué - BAR - (7.78) 14.50
R. Drenthe - HER - (14.17) 26.00

Juan Pablo - SPO - (8.39) 29.50

Robert Soldado: incredible 4 goals!

szólj hozzá: Ge 2-4 Va