Friday, 30 September 2011
La Liga Week 7 Predictions
Wednesday, 28 September 2011
Team of the week: 6
Top players in each position this week were:
Top forwards
Messi, (BAR 5-0 AM) 40
Ronaldo, (RMA 6 -2 RVA) 23.5
Villa, (BAR 5-0 AM) 22.5
The only surprise about this trio appearing as the outstanding strikers of the week is how infrequently the undoubted superstars achieve this in unison. Villa is especially guilty of not achieving his place at the top as often as he should. The Barca strikers feasted on a characteristically poor Atletico Madrid defence plundering 5 for no return, Villa with one and Messi with the hattrick. Ronaldo steered Real to victory over Rayo Vallecano with their second 6-2 home win in 4 games.
Top midfielders:
Michu (rma 6-2 RAYO VALLECANO) 19.5
Midfielder Michu takes the Man of the week award with his 2 goals and 19.5 points at the Bernabau - all from a value of 6.57. Real Madrid has been a happy hunting ground for losing attackers, with Getafe's Miku grabbing a brace even as his side went down 4-2 in the opening week.
Castro (MALLORCA 2-1 real sociedad) 18
Castro gave Michael Laudrup's Mallorca a much needed win, only for the Dane to resign at the start of the week.
Raul Garcia (Granada 1-1 OSASUNA) 17
His first goal since returning to his home town on loan from Atletico Madrid.
Ozil (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 15.5
2 assists for the German, who predictably filled his boots against promoted Vallecano.
Top defenders
Moreno (levante 3-1 ESPANYOL) 13.5
An all but irrelevant compensation goal as Espanyol went down to highflying Levante.
Francis (sporting gijon 0-0 RACING SANTANDER) 11.5
An intriguing 11.5 points which included 10 intercepted passes. Contributed to a rare steely display from the Racing defence at struggling Gijon.
Varane (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 11
A super goal from the French youth already fulfilling the promise that earnt him his big money move from Lens.
Top GK
Varas (SEV 1-0 val) 22
Javi Varas' 22 points show how close Sevilla's 1-0 victory over Valencia was. Sevilla edging their way into the top 4.
Top forwards
Messi, (BAR 5-0 AM) 40
Ronaldo, (RMA 6 -2 RVA) 23.5
Villa, (BAR 5-0 AM) 22.5
The only surprise about this trio appearing as the outstanding strikers of the week is how infrequently the undoubted superstars achieve this in unison. Villa is especially guilty of not achieving his place at the top as often as he should. The Barca strikers feasted on a characteristically poor Atletico Madrid defence plundering 5 for no return, Villa with one and Messi with the hattrick. Ronaldo steered Real to victory over Rayo Vallecano with their second 6-2 home win in 4 games.
Top midfielders:
Michu (rma 6-2 RAYO VALLECANO) 19.5
Midfielder Michu takes the Man of the week award with his 2 goals and 19.5 points at the Bernabau - all from a value of 6.57. Real Madrid has been a happy hunting ground for losing attackers, with Getafe's Miku grabbing a brace even as his side went down 4-2 in the opening week.
Castro (MALLORCA 2-1 real sociedad) 18
Castro gave Michael Laudrup's Mallorca a much needed win, only for the Dane to resign at the start of the week.
Raul Garcia (Granada 1-1 OSASUNA) 17
His first goal since returning to his home town on loan from Atletico Madrid.
Ozil (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 15.5
2 assists for the German, who predictably filled his boots against promoted Vallecano.
Top defenders
Moreno (levante 3-1 ESPANYOL) 13.5
An all but irrelevant compensation goal as Espanyol went down to highflying Levante.
Francis (sporting gijon 0-0 RACING SANTANDER) 11.5
An intriguing 11.5 points which included 10 intercepted passes. Contributed to a rare steely display from the Racing defence at struggling Gijon.
Varane (REAL MADRID 6-2 rayo vallecano) 11
A super goal from the French youth already fulfilling the promise that earnt him his big money move from Lens.
Top GK
Varas (SEV 1-0 val) 22
Javi Varas' 22 points show how close Sevilla's 1-0 victory over Valencia was. Sevilla edging their way into the top 4.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Short verse
Fantasy Football on the internet
Headless shirts and mindless numbers
Put the players in team in time
Skim and scheme and static mime
A chance to achieve, a chance to win
Friday feeling in black and white
Hopes and dreams for Saturday night
The empty pages fill up fast with binary code and pictures of faces.
Once chance to impress
the rest
Every week, every day, until the year dies.
Friday, 16 September 2011
Week 3: Preview
GKs
Esp: Alvarez
Defs
Rmad: Coentrao
Mids
Get: Rios
Bar: Cesc, Thiago
Mga: Carzola
Amr: Turan, Reyes, Diego
Forwards
Getafe: Miku, Guiza
RMad: Benzema, Higuain, CRon
Barca: Villa, Messi, Pedro
Vill: Rossi
Val: Soldado
Sev: Negredo
Amr: Falcao
Key points
Cristiano Ronaldo has the best minutes per goal ratio in LigaBBVA this season (one per 45 mins) along with Soldado, but has never scored against Levante.
Despite their draw at Real Sociedad, this is still Barcelona’s highest-scoring start to a season in LigaBBVA since 1984.
Fixtures
Saturday September 17 - Day 4 17 Sep, 17:00 Sporting Gijón v Valencia CF Estadio El Molinón, Gijón
17 Sep, 17:00 Granada CF v Villarreal CF Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada
17 Sep, 17:00 RCD Mallorca v Málaga CF Iberostar Estadi, Palma de Mallorca
17 Sep, 19:00 FC Barcelona v Osasuna Camp Nou, Barcelona
17 Sep, 21:00 Sevilla FC v Real Sociedad Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan, Seville
Sunday September 18 - Day 4
18 Sep, 11:00 Getafe CF v Rayo Vallecano Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe
18 Sep, 15:00 Real Zaragoza v RCD Espanyol Estadio La Romareda, Zaragoza
18 Sep, 17:00 Atlético Madrid v Racing Santander Estadio Vicente Calderón, Madrid
18 Sep, 19:00 Levante UD v Real Madrid Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
18 Sep, 21:00 Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis San Mamés, Bilbao
Esp: Alvarez
Defs
Rmad: Coentrao
Mids
Get: Rios
Bar: Cesc, Thiago
Mga: Carzola
Amr: Turan, Reyes, Diego
Forwards
Getafe: Miku, Guiza
RMad: Benzema, Higuain, CRon
Barca: Villa, Messi, Pedro
Vill: Rossi
Val: Soldado
Sev: Negredo
Amr: Falcao
Key points
Cristiano Ronaldo has the best minutes per goal ratio in LigaBBVA this season (one per 45 mins) along with Soldado, but has never scored against Levante.
Despite their draw at Real Sociedad, this is still Barcelona’s highest-scoring start to a season in LigaBBVA since 1984.
Fixtures
Saturday September 17 - Day 4 17 Sep, 17:00 Sporting Gijón v Valencia CF Estadio El Molinón, Gijón
17 Sep, 17:00 Granada CF v Villarreal CF Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada
17 Sep, 17:00 RCD Mallorca v Málaga CF Iberostar Estadi, Palma de Mallorca
17 Sep, 19:00 FC Barcelona v Osasuna Camp Nou, Barcelona
17 Sep, 21:00 Sevilla FC v Real Sociedad Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan, Seville
Sunday September 18 - Day 4
18 Sep, 11:00 Getafe CF v Rayo Vallecano Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe
18 Sep, 15:00 Real Zaragoza v RCD Espanyol Estadio La Romareda, Zaragoza
18 Sep, 17:00 Atlético Madrid v Racing Santander Estadio Vicente Calderón, Madrid
18 Sep, 19:00 Levante UD v Real Madrid Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
18 Sep, 21:00 Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis San Mamés, Bilbao
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Resuma de la Liga
Players of note:
What do we know?
1. Espanyol are good - even without Callejon: Sergio Garcia can score points, their bargain GK Alvarez is super.
2. Barcelona are rubbish - they cannot withstand the power of Griezmann. Fabregas is a must-keep forever player, while Alexis Sanchez has managed to rule himself out of that category by getting injured.
3. Real Madrid are boring. Pick their players if you must. Coentrao is handy.
4. Osasuna are still cool. Cejudo continues to impress.
5. Real Betis are strong, but can you guess who will be good for them?
6. Getafe's Miku is a champ, chomping at the bit
7. Atheltico Madrid are all change but stay the same. Just like Valencia.
Monday:
Malaga 4 (Santi Cazorla 4,48, Joaquin 25,73) Granada CF 0
Sunday
Osasuna 2 (Nino 28, Alvaro 30) Sporting Gijon 1 (David Barral 75)
Rayo Vallecano 0 Real Zaragoza 0
Racing Santander 0 Levante 0
Real Betis 1 (Ruben Castro 87) Real Mallorca 0
Espanyol 2 (Sergio Garcia, x2) - 1 Athletico Bilbao (Llorente)
Saturday
Valencia 1 (Roberto Soldado 52) Atletico Madrid 0
Real Madrid 4 (Benzema 14,69, Ronaldo 60pen, Higuain 88) Getafe 2 (Miku 39,73)
Villarreal 2 (Rossi 35pen, Marco Ruben 73) Sevilla 2 (Alvaro Negredo 24, Alexis 86)
Real Sociedad 2 (Agirretxe 59,Griezmann 61) Barcelona 2 (Xavi 10, Fabregas 11)
What do we know?
1. Espanyol are good - even without Callejon: Sergio Garcia can score points, their bargain GK Alvarez is super.
2. Barcelona are rubbish - they cannot withstand the power of Griezmann. Fabregas is a must-keep forever player, while Alexis Sanchez has managed to rule himself out of that category by getting injured.
3. Real Madrid are boring. Pick their players if you must. Coentrao is handy.
4. Osasuna are still cool. Cejudo continues to impress.
5. Real Betis are strong, but can you guess who will be good for them?
6. Getafe's Miku is a champ, chomping at the bit
7. Atheltico Madrid are all change but stay the same. Just like Valencia.
Monday:
Malaga 4 (Santi Cazorla 4,48, Joaquin 25,73) Granada CF 0
Sunday
Osasuna 2 (Nino 28, Alvaro 30) Sporting Gijon 1 (David Barral 75)
Rayo Vallecano 0 Real Zaragoza 0
Racing Santander 0 Levante 0
Real Betis 1 (Ruben Castro 87) Real Mallorca 0
Espanyol 2 (Sergio Garcia, x2) - 1 Athletico Bilbao (Llorente)
Saturday
Valencia 1 (Roberto Soldado 52) Atletico Madrid 0
Real Madrid 4 (Benzema 14,69, Ronaldo 60pen, Higuain 88) Getafe 2 (Miku 39,73)
Villarreal 2 (Rossi 35pen, Marco Ruben 73) Sevilla 2 (Alvaro Negredo 24, Alexis 86)
Real Sociedad 2 (Agirretxe 59,Griezmann 61) Barcelona 2 (Xavi 10, Fabregas 11)
Friday, 27 May 2011
End of season review
There is no review. Because I can't see the final points.
For what its worth, I'm glad Deportivo went down. They were one of the most boring sides this year and Zaragoza earnt their reprieve with their late run of form.
I wanted to do a Barca v Man Utd preview based on season's stats but I can only imagine.
For what its worth, I'm glad Deportivo went down. They were one of the most boring sides this year and Zaragoza earnt their reprieve with their late run of form.
I wanted to do a Barca v Man Utd preview based on season's stats but I can only imagine.
Wednesday, 18 May 2011
La Liga: The final day - Relegation and Europa Cup battles
The final weekend of La Liga. What is left to play for? Everything has been decided apart from the final relegation place. The top four cannot change position and the Europa Cup competitors are all in place.
In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.
The current La Liga standings:
Key:
Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:
Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF
Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?
Levante 1-0 Zaragoza
The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.
Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi
Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe
A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.
Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.
Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal
This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.
Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders
Deportivo 0-1 Valencia
This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.
Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.
Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.
Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.
Pick: AB - Muniain
Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.
Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:
My current lineup for this weekend:
GK
Aoute, Mallorca, 4
Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1
Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5
Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5
In fantasy terms, the best I can hope for is improving on my position of 34th in Fans of Almeria. What I've done today, is use the statistical model to predict the results of the final round of La Liga games, and in turn find out who is going down.
The current La Liga standings:
Key:
- League position cannot change
- Nothing but pride to play for
- Could be relegated
- Europa Cup
Here are the final day fixtures with the mathematically predicted scores:
Málaga CF 0 - 2 FC Barcelona
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Hércules CF 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón
Real Madrid 5 - 0 UD Almería
Osasuna 1 - 0 Villarreal CF
Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Getafe CF
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Levante UD 1 - 0 Real Zaragoza
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La Coruña 0 - 1 Valencia CF
Please bare in mind we cannot factor in that extra drop of mayhem that can unbalance normal proceedings on the final day of the season. Working through the list, in order of importance: which of these results feels right?
Levante 1-0 Zaragoza
The most important game of the day. In short, if Zaragoza lose, no other results matter in the relegation fight. A home win feels like a fair prediction. Levante have had an excellent 2nd half of the season, but Zaragoza have defeated Real Madrid and Valencia in recent weeks. I expect more goals from both sides but, with a 49% weighting for the home win, I allow Spiegel to convince me that Levante will prevail but there will surely be more than one goal in the match.
Pick: L - Caicedo, Valdo, RZ - Gabi
Real Sociedad 1-0 Getafe
A real hum-dinger. Both sides can go down if Zaragoza win and Depor get a point. A Sociedad home win is one of the top predictions with 51%. I'm happy with that. Again, I might expect more goals from two sides fighting for their lives. Even if Getafe lose, Parejo and Rios should both do well.
Pick: RS - Xabi Prieto, Griezmann; G - Parejo, Rios.
Osasuna 1-0 Villarreal
This feels right. If anything, Osasuna will score more. The Yellow Submarines have nothing to play for and seem to have left for their holidays weeks ago while Osasuna have been in top form, especially at home. Osasuna are pretty much guaranteed safety and can only go down if they concede about 10 goals and Zaragoza, Deportivo and Getafe win.
Pick: O - Ricardo, Camunas, Cejudo, Sola, any defenders
Deportivo 0-1 Valencia
This is one I feel less convinced about. Spiegel makes Los Che heavy favourites but they, like Villarreal, have nothing to play for. Deportivo have found it hard to get excited this season, but they may just get up for this one and upset the prediction. Anything other than a win leaves them vulnerable to the drop.
Pick: D - Adrian; V - Soldado
RCD Mallorca 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid
Both sides are stumbling towards the finish line. Atletico are playing Europa Cup football again. The only issue they have to worry about is avoiding the ignominy of having to go through the qualifying rounds if they come 7th. That tedium will certainly be on players' minds. Both sides don't really need to do a lot to be ok so a point each seems highly likely.
Pick: M - Webo, Nuse, De Guzman; AM - Reyes, Aguero
RCD Espanyol 1 - 0 Sevilla FC
Espanyol have done their best to remove themselves from contention for Europa Cup qualification. Sevilla need a win to avoid having to qualify for the tournament. Kanoute may be a up for a flourish of a sign off. A home win or draw feels fair. Not a tempting game to punt on. Spiegel says 1-0 but I'd expect a few more goals for both sides.
Pick: E - Callejon; S - Negredo, Kanoute
Racing Santander 1 - 1 Athletic Bilbao
Both sides are in a bit of form. Racing have secured mid-table mediocrity but Bilbao need to win to guarantee a straight forward passage into Europa Cup football and may fancy it after a few years out of European competition.
Pick: AB - Muniain
Outside of these games, the sharp eyed amongst you will have noticed the massive weighting the model gives to a Real Madrid victory with 5-0 being the most likely result. Therefore, for your fantasy sides, if you are like me, you will probably be sticking in 49m Ronaldo in and then scratching around to fit in scraps around him.
Here is the final table standings as the maths would have it:
My current lineup for this weekend:
GK
Aoute, Mallorca, 4
Galan, Espanyol, 1
Castillo, A.Bil, 1
Amorebieta, A.Bil, 1
Ozil, R.Mad, 5
Di Maria, R.Mad, 5
Granero, R.Mad, 2
Affellay, Barca, .7
Xabi Prieto, RSO, 14.5
Ronaldo, RMAD, 49
Caicedo, Lev, 12.5
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