Saturday, 12 February 2011

Week 23: in the hands of Calatans

Xabi Prieto. Due a big game
Great info at Simply Football

Real Sociedad v Osasuna

From Simply Football: "Osasuna have only 2 pts from a possible 33 on the road this year." Although, they do have one of the league's most stubbornly good GK's in Ricardo.

From Accu score: "There is a 29.7% chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Real Sociedad, at 40.2%, are solid favorites to beat Osasuna who have a 30.1% chance. In simulation wins, Osasuna upsets Real Sociedad by averaging 10.1 shots and 3.7 shots on goal. They average 2 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.4 in simulation losses. Overall, the average simulation score is Real Sociedad 1.3 to Osasuna 1."

Star picks:
Tamudo, Forward, 11.19
scored 9.5 pts last week and a goal the week before.
Xavi Prieto, midfield, 10.39
Midfield maestro does all Sociedad's best work. This team's top scorer for season with 170.5, avg 7.75. Got first negative points of season last week, hence price drop.
Mark Gonzalez, defender, 3.19
Nice and cheap and this guy scored 16 pts a couple of weeks back.

Malaga v Getafe

Arnau could be a good value keeper at 8.64, coming into the Malaga goal. While Malaga are at the foot of the table, they earned a solid 0-0 draw last week with Seville.

Also, Malaga Rondon, forward at 13.84, scored last time these teams met.

Espanyol v Real Madrid

A tricky tie for Mourinho's men. Espanyol have won 8 from 10 at home but have been struggling with injuries. Star striker Osvaldo is still out and keeper Kameni and forward Sergio Garcia are doubts suffering knocks this week. Real have not won their last 2 away outings.

It's worth hanging on to a bargain Adebayor (8.51, now 10.81) and bargains Ozil and Di Maria but not worth splashing out on Kaka and Ronaldo for this one.

Sporting Gijon v Barcelona

Another formality for Barca. Gijon had a bit of a plucky revival recently but were simply crushed by Bilbao last weekend. Messi is coming into superlative form with another hattrick last week and it would make sense to squeeze him in. Pedro did the unthinkable and got a below 10 score last week along with David Villa who still feels unreliable priced at 25.

All Barcelona defenders would be welcome though. Dani Alves scores well away from home. Puyol may return but Abidal was great last week, so he may be saved for the midweek CL tie with Arsenal.

Deportivo v Villarreal

Should be plenty of points here for Villarreal players. Depor are very poor and, despite having a knack of grinding out low scoring matches, they were thumped 4-1 by Getafe last week.

Villa will be looking for vengenace after their great season took was railroaded last weekend by local rivals Levante. After this defeat, a lot of players dropped value so it will be a good time to bring them in. Any from Nilmar, Rossi, Cazorla, Cani and Valero should provide good returns.

Levante v Almeria

Two relegation threatened sides, but very tempting to plump for Levante players after their impressive win at Villarreal last weekend.

Winger Valdo has scored two games on the trot. Can he do the trick again.

Mallorca v Bilbao

Bilbao are on a great run of form so it would be prudent to bring in some of their big hitters. David Lopez, Toquero, Muniain and GK Iraoriz all represent reasonable value priced around 15 and they have been the most consistent performers for the Basques in recent matches

Atletico v Valencia...

is being billed as one of the most entertaining prospects of the weekend though. Valencia have been grinding out results without being overly convincing, while Atletico have been grinding out defeats in a similar manner.

There is no obvious value to be found in either side, although Adruiz offers consistency in the Valencia forward line. Atletico forwards like Reyes, Aguero and Forlan are all too pricey to be truly tempting.

Racing Santander v Seville

Kennedy Bakiricoglu's side have a new manager this week. After being in great form recently, Seville suffered the ignominy of a 0-0 draw with bottom side Malaga last week. Anything could happen in this week but probably sensible to leave well alone.

Hercules v Zaragoza.

Hercules are in dissaray, while Zaragoza have won 3 in their last 4 matches. There is one point separating the two sides. Roysten Drenthe is appealling as most of Hercules' best attacking play goes through the attacking fullback/winger. He represents reasonable value at 10. Striker Nelson Valdez is 13 while homesick David Trezeguet is unlikely to start.

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